THE Malay vote in Simpang Jeram and Pulai were not nearly enough to secure victory for Perikatan Nasional (PN), Merdeka Center for Opinion Research programme director Ibrahim Suffian said.

Analysing the outcome of the two by-elections in Johor yesterday, Ibrahim said there was significant rejection from non-Malay voters against the opposition coalition.

Ibrahim, who co-founded the pollster, said there was a clear indication that Umno supporters backed the unity government and voted the Amanah candidates who represented Pakatan Harapan (PH).

“If we look at the demography, both constituencies are mixed seats and in the non-Malay areas, PN rejection was significant. We can say more than 90% of the votes went to PH.”

“This means PN only managed to garner Malay support but that was not enough. And PN was not able to increase the Malay support either. It needed at least 75% Malay support to win.”

“Usually a low voter turnout would be to PN’s advantage. However, the ‘green wave’ is not overwhelming in Johor,” said Ibrahim.

The colour green is closely associated with Islamist party PAS and the “green wave” phenomenon is a term coined to describe its growing popularity in the peninsula after the 2022 general election.

Asked if Umno voters gave their support to the unity government after Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was given a discharge of his 47 graft charges, Ibrahim said the verdict may have had an impact on the party’s supporters.

“From my ground work, there is a sign of upbeat and high spirit from Umno supporters. Those I met had expressed satisfaction, and as a result, PH-Barisan Nasional (BN) got the Umno vote.”

“The Zahid issue is not a big deal to the non-Malays and so it has little impact on them, but they went out to vote against PN,” he added.

PH candidate Nazri Abdul Rahman won the Simpang Jeram state seat with a 3,514-vote majority over PN’s Dr Mazri Yahya.

The Bakri Amanah deputy chief obtained 13,844 votes to beat Mazri who received 10,330 votes. Independent candidate, businessman S. Jeganathan, received only 311 votes and lost his deposit.

PH also retained the Pulai parliamentary seat with its candidate Suhaizan Kaiat beating PN’s Zulkifli Jaafar.

Suhaizan won the seat with a 18,641-vote majority after polling 48,283 votes in a three-cornered contest. 

Zulkifli polled 29,642 votes while Independent candidate Samsudin Mohamad Fauzi scored 528 votes.

Zahid discharge benefits unity govt

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia was in agreement with Ibrahim.

The political analyst said that Zahid’s verdict had a huge impact on Umno supporters.

“I had previously said that Zahid having his charges dropped would be a catalyst for the unity government. Umno supporters can now say that the party is clean from graft and no one in the cabinet has a pending court case.

“Umno members felt a sense of relief. It was to PH’s advantage, Umno members backed them this time.

On Monday, High Court judge Collin Lawrence Sequerah granted Zahid a DNAA in his Yayasan Akalbudi corruption trial.

Sequerah made the ruling after listening to the prosecution’s submission.

He said the decision was made to allow further investigations by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission, and added the case was still open.

University of Tasmania academic James Chin, meanwhile, said that he was surprised to learn that PH had won in Simpang Jeram.

Noting that Malay voter sentiment in Johor is different compared to other states, Chin said the victory would be a major boost for Anwar as well as for Zahid.

“Malays in Johor are different from the rest. They are not afraid of the Chinese as they work in Singapore. Race fear mongering did not help PN win the by-elections.

“But I am surprised to learn that PH won in Simpang Jeram. This is definitely a major boost for Anwar and also for Zahid. I expected it would lose in Simpang Jeram and only win in Pulai,” said the professor of Asian studies.

Asked if Umno grassroots decided to throw their support behind PH-BN due to Zahid’s victory in court, Chin said that could be a possibility.

“Of course, Umno’s image is somehow cleaned by the court’s decision and supporters are happy to back the party again, which is now part of the government,” he added.

In last year’s Johor state elections, PH’s Salahuddin Ayub polled 8,749 votes to beat BN candidate Lokman Md. Don (6,062), Zarul Salleh of PN (6,350) and Mahaizal Mahmor of Pejuang (208) to win the Simpang Jeram seat.

In the 2023 general election, Salahuddin secured the Pulai parliament seat with 64,900 votes, defeating BN’s Nur Jazlan Mohamed who garnered 31,726 votes, and PN’s Loh Kah Yong who received 20,677 votes. – September 10, 2023.