THE status quo in five of six states after the August 12 state polls will remain, with Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) still in power in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan, and Perikatan Nasional (PN) holding Kedah and Kelantan, said Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR).

The research house did not analyse Terengganu as some general election (GE) results are being disputed in court.

NASR drew up two scenarios in its report.

The first assumes voting patterns will remain as that of a straight fight during the GE, while the second factors in a reduced voter turnout of 67%, as in the 2021 Malacca elections and 2022 Johor elections.

In the second scenario, the researchers assume PH and PN supporters are loyal, but NASR factored in a three-part split among BN voters.

Findings revealed PH-BN’s hold on Selangor and Negri Sembilan “is strong” and in whichever scenario, the pact would win.

In Selangor under the first scenario, PH-BN will sweep 53 of the 56 seats, with PN winning only in Selat Klang, Morib and Sijangkang.

In the second scenario, PH-BN is projected to win 41 seats while PN would win 15.

In whichever scenario, NASR said PH-BN will have two-thirds majority in the Selangor assembly.

NASR said the main battlegrounds in Selangor in its second scenario will be Paya Jaras, Kuala Kubu Bharu, Sungai Pelek, Bukit Melawati, Sekinchan, Taman Medan, Gombak Setia, Taman Templer, Pelabuhan Klang, Ijok, Tanjong Sepat, Batu Tiga, Hulu Kelang, Dengkil, Pematang, Jeram, Sungai Kandis, Hulu Bernam, Sungai Air Tawar, Sabak, Sungai Ramal, Batang Kali and Sungai Burong.

The research house predicts former Selangor Menteri Besar and PN candidate Mohamed Azmin Ali will lose in Hulu Kelang.

It said in Negri Sembilan, PH-BN will sweep all 36 seats in scenario one, but PN could win up to eight seats in scenario two.

Even winning 28 seats will still give PH-BN a two-thirds majority to form the new government.

NASR said in Penang, PH-BN will win 38 seats and PN will win two in scenario one – Penaga and Permatang – but said PN could win up to 11 seats in scenario two.

As in Selangor and Negri Sembilan, the PH-BN bloc will have its two-thirds majority in the new assembly.

NASR’s research found PN will hold Kedah by winning 28 of 36 seats in the first scenario, or by winning 33 seats in the second scenario.

Its Kelantan projections are similar, with PN expected to sweep 41 of the 42 seats in scenario one.

PH-BN is expected to win only Kota Lama in scenario one, but in scenario two, PH-BN may be be wiped out.

The research house said though BN has the smallest number of voters in some states, those voters could determine which coalition wins.

NASR said there are many seats won by a majority of less than 2,000 votes in the last election, and that the few fence-sitters are unlikely to impact results. – August 9, 2023.