PAKATAN Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) need to forge an electoral pact and come to an understanding on seat allocations for the Selangor state elections if they want to keep the opposition at bay, political pundits said. 

They said failure to do so would result in Perikatan Nasional (PN) being handed the advantage, going by how many battles played out in Selangor during the recent general election (GE15). 

University of Tasmania’s Professor of Asian Studies James Chin said that both sides would have much to lose if they did not reach an understanding. 

“BN and PH will eventually come to a deal in Selangor. 

“There is not going to be an open fight between these two coalitions because they know that any split between them will give PN the edge. 

“Both sides have too much to lose if they don’t come together,” Chin told The Malaysian Insight. 

Last week, Sany Hamzan, an Amanah central leadership committee member, reportedly said that PH would defend all 40 state seats it won in the 2018 general election, even though PH and BN are allies in the federal government. 

Chin said that there might be a disagreement now but believed it would be sorted out later by the leaders of both coalitions.

“The sort of disagreement that is present now is very much an opening statement, sort of a negotiation position. 

“But I have no doubt that they will come to an agreement for the state elections,” Chin said. 

Chin also thought that if PN were to perform well in Selangor, it would confirm the “green wave” or a shift in voter support towards the right wing and Islamist-centric coalition. 

“If PN does well in Selangor, this means that the victory for PN/PAS in GE15 will be confirmed in the upcoming state elections,” he said. 

PH had taken control of Selangor in 2008 and denied BN a chance to take it back. 

In total, Selangor has 56 seats in the state legislature. 

Incumbent coalition PH had won a supermajority of 51 seats in the 2018 polls and were able to form a government, securing a third term. The opposition BN won four seats while PAS won one. 

PH’s seats later dropped to 40, following a loss in the Semenyih by-election as well as the infamous Sheraton Move in 2020, which saw several politicians defecting to other parties. 

Tough negotiations

International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar had a contrasting view, saying seat negotiations would be tough between both coalitions. 

This, he said, was because the parties who won the seats in the last polls would want to defend them. 

“In the last elections, PH won 51 seats, while BN won four and PAS one. 

“Normally, parties would want to contest in the seats they had won in the previous elections,” he said. 

Tunku Mohar believes that if a deadlock is reached in negotiations, BN would probably end up contesting the seats previously contested by Bersatu candidates. 

Thus, BN would only have 11 seats to contest in the Selangor polls. 

“If that is the status quo, the best BN can hope for would be 11 (4 BN, 1 PAS and 6 Bersatu seats from the 2018 general election). 

“If BN can get more, it would be a case of courtesy from PH,” he said. 

Tunku Mohar, however, asserted that the best strategy was to let the incumbent parties defend their seats. 

“The best formula would be to have the winning parties defend their seats, while PH helps BN in the other seats. 

“This would be the least controversial route to take,” he said. 

Six states – Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu – decided not to dissolve their state assemblies and hold their polls simultaneously with GE15. They would need to call for elections by September.

Only Pahang, Perak, and Perlis held their polls concurrently with the national polls. Sabah, Malacca, Johor, and Sarawak had already held state polls prior to the general election. – January 18, 2023.