THE changing political landscape after the general election will see Perikatan Nasional (PN) giving Pakatan Harapan (PH) a tough fight in six state elections next year, analysts said.
Terengganu, Kelantan, Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan decided not dissolve their state assemblies in conjunction with the election, but to allow them to run to full term, ending in 2023.
Terengganu, Kelantan and Kedah are PN administered states while PH controls Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan.
The analysts said that PAS, the largest party in the PN coalition, collected 49 of the 222 parliamentary seats in the election, thus replacing Umno as the dominant Malay party in national politics.
The question most political analysts are asking now is: Will this “green tsunami” continue in the state elections, particularly in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan?
Chin Chong Foh, an expert on Malay politics, told The Malaysian Insight this onslaught, particularly in PH-controlled states, would depend on a number of factors.
“First, can PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) strike up some kind of cooperation now that they are working together in federal government?
“If they can, then the chances are high for PH to retain power in Penang and Selangor after the elections,” he said.
Chin said PH had already shown goodwill in Perak and Pahang – where state elections have just been held – by deferring to BN to name its menteri besar and exco.
“I believe BN would reciprocate by stepping aside and making way for PH in Penang and Selangor,” he added.
However, Chin said BN might not do the same in Negri Sembilan where Umno is the largest single party, despite the three-party PH maintaining its majority.
BN, he said, is still the dominant party in the state and its influence is still relatively strong there.
“I don’t believe Umno will give way easily (in Negri Sembilan).”
BN may drag down Pakatan
Chin also said the state elections in Negri Sembilan could end up in a three-way fight between BN, PH and PN.
“As of right now, the BN could regain power in the state. However, there is also the possibility that BN and PH could form a coalition government.”
Chin, who is also the deputy director of UTAR, said the last election had shown the BN’s strength now lies in the northern and east coast states.
“Without a doubt, the BN will compete in Terengganu, Kelantan and Kedah when elections are called.
“The question is will PH get out of BN’s way and let it have a straight fight with the PN.”
Chin also said in a straight fight, PN might not win big.
He said PAS’s unprecedented success in the November polls was not due to Malay voters suddenly deviating towards religious politics.
He said it was because PH had embarked on an anti-corruption, anti-Zahid campaign and PAS candidates under the PN banner were just hitching a ride to win a few more seats.
Chin said if the voters’ dislike for BN continues, it could taint PH to the point it could lose some seats in Selangor and Penang.
However, he said the possibility of PN winning those two states was remote.
When Selangor last went to the polls in 2018, PH won 51 of the 56 seats, with BN winning only four and PAS one.
Despite Bersatu and some PKR members having left the party following the Sheraton Move, PH still holds a comfortable majority.
Recently, Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow had said his government was willing to discuss with his counterparts in Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan, Negri Sembilan and Selangor, so state elections could be held simultaneously.
The mandate of the Penang state assembly expires on August 2 next year.
Tough for Pakatan in Negri Sembilan
Lau Zhe Wei of the International Islamic University Malaysia said while PH would have little difficulty defending Penang and Selangor, the same could not be said for Negri Sembilan.
He said PH might lose some seats in Selangor, particularly in rural Malay areas, but the coalition will still retain the state comfortably.
In Negri Sembilan, he said it would be a battle of the Malays in PKR, Umno and Bersatu.
Vincent Thock Kiah Wah, a political scientist, pointed out PAS could be in the fray having gained some of the ground it claimed in November.
“Umno’s nationalism in the early gave the party its political clout, but now Malays are divided.
“Umno has lost that clout due to a loss of confidence in its leaders, many of whom are mired in corruption allegations.”
Thock said in the final analysis, PH would definitely face a stiff challenge in the elections in the six states next year.
“PAS is gaining strength in the north and on the east coast.
“While Penang would not be a problem for PH to retain, there would be some fight in Selangor and Negri Sembilan” where Thock said PH and PN are evenly matched. – December 7, 2022.
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Comments
UMNO, post Tun Mahathir 1st term as PM began to deviate from its original role as a moderate protector as it's leaders found that plundering the national coffers was more lucrative and relatively easy. This lead to BN-UMNO losing power for the first time ever in 2018. To regain power, it experimented with cooperation with its mortal enemy, PAS under Maufakat Nasional which had some success in state and by-elections. The eventual break-up of the Maufakat has largely to do with UMNO leaders realising the real possiblility of UMNO being subsumed by PAS if the relationship continues.
In all this while, with a severely weaken corruption tainted UMNO berated by its opponents especially PH, the Malays, especially in the heartlands no longer regarded UMNO as a credible protector of their interests. It is little wonder that PN, notably PAS benefitted immensely from UMNO's problems.
No political analyst or season political operative foresaw this lacuna in the Malay heartland EXCEPT Tun Mahathir. He hurriedly cobbled together a mix bag of Malay parties, NGOs and activist under GTA to fill the gap left by UMNO so that the rural Malays will have a credible alternative other than PAS. But alas, there just wasn't time for GTA to take roots (GTA is not even formally incorporated) before GE15 was called. As it turns out, GTA lost badly with all losing their deposits including Tun himself.
Tun's effort at forming another pure Malay based independent party premised on integrity and anti-corruption is sound strategy. I believe Tun had hoped that his credentials championing for the Malays all his adult life would helped GTA gain some seats as voters fled UMNO. But it was not to be.
In the interest of our multi-racial society, I believe UMNO must rebuild and regain its strength so that it may once again play it's moderate role as it's founders had envisaged. Whilst many had touted the need to do away with racial based parties, it may not be time yet. It will be a delicate balancing act as affirmative action policies are still embedded in our Constitution. We need to be realistic. Tun Mahathir has a reservoir or experience and views. He foresaw the need for a new political paradigm, he first mooted the idea of a unity govt and he also foresaw the voter void left by UMNO.
PH will never be able to fill the lacuna left by UMNO so it be wise to form a long term alliance with a reformed BN-UMNO. PH should also seek out Tun Mahathir and listen to his views. Stop harping about the Sheraton Move which to me had to happen as the old politics of race & religion was just not sustainable.
We now have a Unity Govt for better or worse we have to make it work. My congratulations and best wishes to PM Anwar Ibrahim.
Posted 1 year ago by Super Duper · Reply
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