OPPOSITION parties would have likely gained some advantage with a campaign period for the general election extending beyond the allocated two weeks, political analysts said.

Prominent social and political activist Vincent Thock Kiah Wah told The Malaysian Insight that a longer period to canvas for votes would give Pakatan Harapan (PH) the time it needs to bridge the support gap with Barisan Nasional (BN).

PH will have the time to discuss and coordinate strategies among its three parties – PKR, DAP and Amanah, and probably work out electoral cooperation with other parties, he added.

“It might not change the general outlook much. BN, on paper, appears favourites to win but a longer campaign period could likely reduce its lead.”

Thock said PH’s support base, unlike BN’s, is mostly in the urban and among migrant workers, including those working outside the country and are hard to reach.

If coming home is inconvenient, overseas voters would be reluctant to do so, Thock added.

BN’s support base, particularly Umno’s, on the other hand, he said, is in the rural areas of the country and these are people who are willing to come out and vote come rain or shine.

“This will definitely work against PH if they do not have time to address it.”

Thock said one thing PH could do to address its handicap is to have a manifesto that explains why it is important for their supporters to return home and vote.

“The casting of votes on November 19, a Saturday, should give PH some encouragement as this would make it easier for their supporters to travel home for the weekend and to discharge their duty.”

Even though polling is on a Saturday, Thock said he does not believe the turnout in the coming general election would be higher than the last polls.

“The turnout will be high but certainly not higher than the last general election. Maybe it’ll be between 70 and 75%.”

“The 2018 general election was like a popular uprising,” he said in reference to the fervour to drive former prime minister Najib Razak and BN kleptocrats out of power.

Liew Wui Chern, a mass communication lecturer at Universiti Tun Abdul Razak, said political parties were not exactly caught off guard by the October 10 dissolution of parliament as they have been gearing themselves up for it months before.

He said that advanced preparation is helpful to opposition parties like PH.

Liew said even before the dissolution and the dates set for the election, opposition parties were already working on the ground in the so-called “grey constituencies”, especially those with a majority of between 1,000 and 2,000 votes.

“They had a long lead time to draw up their manifestos and activate their election campaign machinery – working on the deployment of their resources and print posters, banners, buntings and flags.”

On the turnout, Liew concurred with Thock that the turnout this election would not be as high as in 2018.

“Polling day on a weekend could result in a high turnout but it will not break the figures of 2018.”

Like Thock, Liew said he too believes the turnout this election will be between 70 and 75%, which, in his view, “is already very good”.

Liew was more taken aback by the campaign period of 14 days, as he had expected a shorter time frame.

Nonetheless, he welcomed it, describing it as “reasonable”.

Tang Ah Chai, a prominent commentator on the Chinese Malaysian community, said Malaysians should not be deceived by the lukewarm response of the Chinese to the coming polls.

He attributed the response to their preoccupation with the possible threat of floods and what they needed to do to avoid catastrophic losses.

“At the moment, it seems only the politicians are enthusiastic about it.”

Tan said in the 2018 general election, the situation was similarly lukewarm in the beginning.

“However, as people’s frustrations over the failure to change the government in the 2013 general election grew, the atmosphere began to heat up.

“I believe it’s the same with this general election. It will slowly heat up later.”

This, Tan added, would depend on how the opposition parties and civil society organisations play up hot button issues. – October 25, 2022.