THE increase in the number of new voters following the inclusion of Undi18 and automatic voter registration does not guarantee a high turnout in the general election, political observers said.

They said there are several factors that may stop first time voters from exercising their right and it is up to political parties to convince them to come out on polling day.

The total number of registered voters in Malaysia has now reached 20.6 million as the Election Commission (EC) has added 5.61 million new voters. By comparison, in the 2018 general election there were only 14.9 million registered voters.

Ilham Centre executive director, Hisomuddin Bakar told The Malaysian Insight that there are three segments of first time voters with each category having its own preference.

He said the opportunity is open to all parties to win over first time voters if they could meet the needs and make better offers to the group.

“You have the 18 to 20 year olds who are now enrolled in the electoral system, then you have the first time voters who were not eligible to vote (in the last GE) but are now eligible, as well as first time voters who never had their names registered despite their age qualification.”

“As for the young voters who are voting for the first time, they are the more critical for a political party as well as the government. They are aware of the political situation and they are affected by the cost of living.”

“As for the older ones, who are also first-time voters, they have made it clear that they are not interested in voting. They will not cast their ballots,” said Hisomuddin.

However, he said, there are certain groups among the youth who may not go out to vote as a sign of protest as well as fence sitters who may wait until the very last minute to go out to the polls.

“In the youth segment, there are three groups. There is a group who will not support the election. They protest because they feel they might get betrayed again.”

“Secondly, the fence sitters who are not siding with any party but will wait to hear offers from political parties and will vote once the offers are made.”

“And the third group are youths living with their parents. This group will vote according to the wishes of their parents and live in rural areas.”

“Interestingly, this time the chances are open for all parties. Who can make a better offer or whichever party that can guarantee a stable government or create job opportunities and solve the country’s problems stand a chance of winning the votes from first timers,” Hisomuddin said.

The Constitution (Amendment) Act 2019, known as Undi18, lowers the minimum age of voters and electoral candidates from 21 to 18. The act also included automatic voter registration.

There are now an extra 1.06 million voters in Selangor, followed by Johor (748,955), Sarawak (665,543), Perak (495,190) and Sabah (481,477).

Numbers in Perlis, Putrajaya and Labuan increased by 41,746, 19,670 and 17,044 voters respectively.

Academic Dr Mazlan Ali did not defer too much from Hisomuddin saying that if the number of first time voters increased on polling day, the result may affect the outcome of the general election.

However, he predicted not many first timers would come out on polling day, citing the Johor state election as an example.

“Based on my research, first time voters are those who are not aware of the current political situation and the chances of them not going to cast their ballots are high, unless political parties are able to convince them,” said Mazlan

Mazlan too said there are three segments of first time voters.

“The first group we call them participants. These are university students or those working in urban areas. Those who moved out from their hometowns to work in cities. They tend to vote for Pakatan Harapan.

“Then we have the subject group. Men or women who are living with their parents and will vote according to what their parents tell them. If their parents are BN supporters, they will vote for BN.

“Thirdly, the parochial group may not vote at all, unless they are paid or given incentives. Otherwise, they won’t bother,” he said.

“I do not put high expectations on first time voters to come out in huge numbers as they do not have much interest in voting,” he said.

Mazlan said during the Johor state election, the number of first time voters who came out was low.

He then stated that in the last GE, first time voters too did not show much interest.

“In the GE14, despite the hype, millions did not bother to go out to vote,” he said.

As for Badrul Hisyam Ismail of Iman Research, he predicted that the new wave of voters can only be studied once the campaign period starts.

He agreed that the behaviour of first time voters differs from each other based on age, occupation and level of education.

“I think we can see if there is a wave of new voters or not when the campaign starts. From night ceramahs we can see if the field is filled with youths or veterans.”

“During online ceramahs, we can also see if the youth are interested in listening to politicians speaking or if they don’t listen at all.”

“Of course, how they vote is based on how they think, who their friends are, parents participation and demography. Will the outcome of GE be different this time, it depends if they go out to vote,” he said.

The additional 5.6 million new voters affect the urban constituencies in Selangor and Johor particularly.

Of the 10 constituencies that will be most affected by new voters, six are in Selangor, three in Johor and one in Sarawak.

The Selangor seats are Bangi, Kota Raja, Subang, Damansara, Klang and Gombak, while the Johor seats are Tebrau, Iskandar Puteri and Pasir Gudang, and Miri will see numbers swell in Sarawak. – October 19, 2022.