THE Pahang legislative assembly was the first state legislature to dissolve to pave the way for simultaneous polls with the general election, but political analysts do not believe the others will follow suit.

“It’s power play at work,” Universiti Putra Malaysia professor of political science Jayum Jawan said.

“Just to show who is in power in the state. Why should the non-Barisan Nasional state governments follow what the federal government under the leadership of BN, Umno decides?” he said.

Jawan was responding to queries from The Malaysian Insight on why most states – with the exception of Sarawak, Sabah, Johor and Malacca whose legislatures are under two years old – have yet to dissolve their legislative assemblies despite the dissolution of parliament on October 10.

To date, six states – Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Negri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang – have stated that they will not dissolve their assemblies to hold polls simultaneously with the parliamentary elelctions.

Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah are ruled by PAS, Negri Sembilan and Selangor are under PKR and Penang by DAP. Penang, however, is dithering on its decision.

Jawan said prior to 2018, it was the norm to have simultaneous elections because the federal and state governments – with the exception of Sabah and Sarawak – were under one ruling coalition, the BN.

“It is advantageous to go into the federal elections as a ruling party,” the Fellow in the Academy of Sciences said.

“They could use the advantages of the offices (government agencies) to campaign for their federal candidates, and they would face fewer electoral restrictions as they are moving everywhere as the leaders of the government of the day, and not a member of a political party out campaigning for their party candidates.”

Political scientists James Chin of the University of Tasmania and Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya, however, said states not ruled by the BN are just playing safe by not putting all their eggs in one basket.

“These non-BN state governments are reluctant, primarily due to confidence issues. That’s obvious,” Chin said.

He said they are uncertain of how well they will do in the parliamentary polls this time around.

“Since they are not confident, it’s (therefore) better to play safe.”

Chin said if they did not fare well as they feared, then their decision not to dissolve their state assemblies would have paid dividends because at the end of the day, they are still in power of their state – at least until the end of its term, sometime in the middle of next year.

“An insurance” was how Awang Azman described it.

“They fear the risk of a total defeat. They could lose everything,” he said.

He said the fear is making them cautious by not wanting to have the state elections together with the parliamentary polls.

“They’re just being more careful to avoid bigger risks,” he said.

Awang Azman said if they fared badly in the coming federal polls, then they could use the remainder of their assembly’s term to repair the damage and strengthen their position.

Jawan agreed and pointed to PAS in the three states they controlled.

“Outside of Kelantan and Terengganu, PAS cannot win any state,” he said.

Jawan said Kedah was an exception as PAS gained control of the assembly with the support of other political parties to attain the minimum 19 seats.

“PAS is in a dilemma as it is uncertain who to support to retain its state governments should elections be called in any of these states,” he said.

The downside of having separate elections is, it could cause voters to get tired, particularly if the polls are close to one another.

If Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Negri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang stay firm with their decisions, then their state elections could be in as short as three months after the federal polls.

Caretaker Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, in “strongly suggesting” that the state assemblies be dissolved for simultaneous elections, said holding them separately will only cause inconveniences to the people who will have to come out twice just to cast their votes.

He said it will definitely incur higher costs for the Election Commission.

Jawan responded to that argument by saying elections should not be about money.

“It is about electing a good government and leaders. This cannot be measured and rationalised in terms of dollars and cents.”

Chin said he is a proponent of separate elections.

He said in separate polls, the voters have more room to decide as federal issues are separated from state ones.

He said it is harder for the voters if all the issues are lumped together.

“Hard for the voters in a combined election,” he said.

Chin said by having separate state and federal elections, it also allows people to judge how well the respective governments are doing.

He said if the federal government is useless, then they could vote against the parties or coalitions that formed the government.

But if the same parties or coalitions that formed their state government is performing, then there is nothing to stop them from voting for it.

“Separate elections allow people to assess the federal and state governments separately. Also, because the elections are held at different times, you can check on the governments’ performance at different times in the five years of their tenure,” said Chin.

He said he would actually like to encourage the states to hold separate elections. – October 15, 2022.