THE possibility of low voter turnout if state elections are held separately from the general election is high judging from the state polls in Malacca, Sarawak and Johor, which saw Barisan Nasional coming out tops, political observers said.

Bersih chairman Thomas Fann said it may not affect the turnout of the federal polls but it would probably discourage people from voting in the subsequent state elections.

He said this is especially so for voters who are working and living out of their home states.

“From the low turnout of the recent state elections in Malacca, Sarawak and Johor, even taking Covid-19 restrictions into account, voters seem to place a lower priority on state elections,” he told the Malaysian Insight.

According to the Election Commission, voter turnout at the Malacca polls was 65%, Johor (54%) and Sarawak (60%).

On October 5, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim said the three Pakatan Harapan states will not dissolve their assemblies should the general election be held soon.

This, he said, was to allow the state leaders of Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Penang to focus on flood preparations and helping victims.

On Monday, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the dissolution of parliament, paving the way for a general election.

Fann said there does not seem to be much excitement about this election as it is being held during the monsoon season.

“Huge ceramah (talks) may be fewer as there isn’t any noticeable excitement.

“Notwithstanding that it is the start of the rainy season and there may be flooding in some areas.

“But the mood may change in the last two weeks before polling day as we have seen in past elections.”

As for having state polls, he said the interest seems to be lower unless there are some extraordinary circumstances that cause people to vote in the state elections.

“Having said that, without being burdened with a national election, the national leadership and resources of all parties would be poured into the state elections and this may raise the interest of voters.”

On whether the parties will focus only on national issues to the point that state matters are ignored, Fann said during previous elections where both polls are held simultaneously, national issues will dominate.

“Even though there may not be any state elections for some states, the parties will still make their offers to the state as whoever controls the federal government has a big say in the development of the state.”

Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said he has reservations about the voter turnout.

He said state elections without a national election may see similar low turnouts as in Johor and Malacca.

“I also think the enthusiasm for public rallies this time around may be lower as the Sheraton Move disheartened a lot of voters.”

On issues the parties will raise during elections, Oh said that even if the two elections are concurrent, national issues typically trump state issues.

He is also of the view that the voter turnout for state elections won’t be better or worse if general elections are held.

University of Tasmania political analyst James Chin believes that the turnout will be based on how people feel about the elections on the day relating to the weather, transportation and other issues.

“It does not depend whether it is a combined state or general election.

“No one scenario fits all. If there are high profile candidates in certain seats, of course there will be a good turnout.”

He also said that national issues will be played up by the parties if state polls are not held, but at the same time local issues will not be ignored. – October 15, 2022.