MCA has no chance of toppling DAP in Penang at the 15th general election, no matter what Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob says, political observers said.

They said Ismail’s recent claim that the spirit and cooperation of Barisan Nasional (BN) in Penang will enable the coalition to win back the hearts and minds of the people there, was misplaced optimism.

They said not even the ongoing corruption trial of former chief minister and DAP chairman Lim Guan Eng was strong enough to loosen the party’s 14-year grip on the island state since it ousted the Gerakan government – then a member of BN – in the 2008 general election.

After a recent visit to Penang, Ismail took to Facebook to say he sensed the bond among BN leaders there was strong and that the coalition’s election machinery is also up to scratch and ready for the polls.

However, Vincent Thock Kiah Wah, a well-known commentator on social and political issues, dismissed this, telling The Malaysian Insight that it was quite common for BN leaders to make such claims at every general election.

He said in this case, Ismail was merely lifting MCA’s morale.

Thock said BN has often seen Penang as an important state that they must rule.

“It is a state that is doing well. So to BN, for DAP to continue to be in power for three terms in a row, is just not palatable.

“That’s the reason why Ismail is making the claim. However, I do not share his optimism.

“In the 14 years DAP has been in power, it had earned a good reputation as a good administrator, had brought economic growth to the state. The party is also admired for having policies that take care of all ethnic groups,” Thock said.

He said every government has their fair share of failings and Penang is no different.

But he said the DAP government has not been embroiled in any major controversies or scandals that affect the public’s confidence.

“Based on their strong track record, DAP and the Pakatan Harapan coalition they are in, are in a better position to retain power.”

Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (Utar) political scientist Liew Wui Chern said there are no signs of any political backlash from the ongoing corruption trial that could cause the Penang government to fall.

“So Ismail’s talk of regaining Penang is merely to boost the morale of Penang BN, particularly MCA,” Liew said.

“At the moment, Umno is single-minded in their push for the general election, so it is important to lift the morale of MCA.”

Liew said it is to give MCA a target to reach.

He, however, said if MCA can pull off a surprise and oust DAP in Penang, he would liken the feat to an ugly duckling transforming into a swan.

“After all, Penang has never been administered by MCA. It was Gerakan before DAP.”

Liew said the Penang electorate could be expected to be a little dissatisfied with the DAP government after 14 years, but it will not lead to a loss of power.

Political analyst and veteran newsman Cheah See Kian said so far, there are no signs that BN’s big three – Umno, MCA and MIC – have what it takes to take Penang.

“Penang is a pluralistic state that has always been politically dominated by the Chinese. For Ismail to make such a claim without having an in-depth discussion with MCA or other component parties, is just too hasty,” Cheah said.

DAP is also not indomitable, he said, adding there is a chink in the party’s armour.

“DAP today is unlike the DAP of the past. In the past, the party was one of dynamism and impetus, easily gaining the support of voters,” he said.

“But the last general election showed that electorates believe all parties, irrespective of which side of the political divide they are in, are the same.

“People’s expectations are not fulfilled. Simply put, voters now feel that it makes no difference if they go out and vote or not because it does not change anything.”

Thock said while Lim’s corruption trial might have some effect on the election, it won’t be enough to cause DAP’s collapse.

“As I have said, DAP’s governance record in Penang and its reputation are good,” the former president of Southern College said.

He added Lim’s public profile is not the same as former prime minister Najib Razak and the case is not on the same scale as the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal. Lim was Penang chief minister for two terms.

Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow, when asked recently if the trial would affect DAP in the next polls, said he would leave that to the voters to decide.

He said in the last general election in 2018, Lim was also beset by many lawsuits.

Utar’s Liew said that since Lim is no longer the chief minister and no longer holds any official position, should he be convicted, the effect of the conviction on DAP would be minimal.

Cheah added the impact of any fallout in the event of a conviction would depend on whether the decision is delivered before or after the general election.

Lim had been charged with using his position as chief minister to solicit RM3.3 million in bribes from companies owned by businessman Zarul Ahmad Mohd Zulkifli, an Umno member, to help secure contracts worth RM6.3 billion for the undersea tunnel projects.

He was alleged to have committed the offence between January 2011 and August 2017 at the Penang chief minister’s office in Komtar.

He was also charged with demanding 10% of profits from Zarul as a reward for assisting the company in securing the same works contract, and selling two pieces of state land worth some RM208.8 million to the developer of the project.

He was alleged to have committed the offences on February 17, 2015 and March 22, 2017 at the Penang Land and Mining Authority office on the 21st floor of Komtar. – September 28, 2022.