MANY Malaysians are probably excited about the prospect of the next general election coming soon, although some might not really wish for it, given that our country is still recovering from a pandemic that lasted for two years.

They fear political instability after the election will not bode well for the economy because both are deeply interconnected.

However, the election must happen to fulfil the obligation under the Federal Constitution as parliament must be dissolved by July.

The latest state elections were held in Sarawak, and the result seems to suggest that Sarawak could be the kingmaker once again at the next national poll.

So, can Sabah also be a kingmaker? As a keen political observer from Sabah, I will argue that the possibility is very slim. 

History teaches us many lessons. Sabah Alliance Party (SAP), an alliance of United Sabah National Organisation (Usno) and United Pasok Momogun Kadazan(Upko), had led Sabah since independence, was defeated by new party Berjaya in the 1976 elections.

The incident opened up the imagination of Sabah folk about the possibility of a state regime change in the future.

History repeated itself in 1985, when Berjaya, the incumbent party that administered Sabah for almost a decade, was defeated by Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS).

After which, PBS was in power for two terms until 1994, when some of the party’s MPs defected to the other side and power transferred to the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance.

Only after 2018, the ruling spell was broken by Warisan, the pro-Pakatan Harapan (PH) party, which took over.

Historic moments above provide a linkage to the headline question, which I would like to call Sabah-Federal relations.

In fact, every change of state power in the past had always been blessed by the federal government.

The federal-state relations turned sour in 1976 when the issue of separation arose as the SAP chief minister (CM) demanded more resources for economic development and questioned the Federal government.

The uncomfortable relationship led the federal government to support the formation of a new opposition party in Sabah with the aim of toppling the incumbent CM.

With support from the federal government, the newly formed Berjaya achieved its objective in 1976.

Berjaya continued to receive federal support for the rest of the term, with the federal government promising to “sink or swim together with Berjaya”.

Unfortunately, the 1986 result sank Berjaya to rock bottom.

The results of the April 1985 state elections showed that the then opposition PBS won 25 seats, while Berjaya, led by Harris Salleh, won only 23 seats. 

The then-prime minister Mahathir Mohamad openly supported Berjaya and said that the federal government would not provide any support if the party lost.

However, Joseph Pairin Kitingan, the PBS leader, was eventually sworn in as chief minister with the blessing of then acting prime minister Musa Hitam.

As a result of a lack of federal recognition and the continuous attacks by the opposition throughout the 10 months in power, the chief minister called for a dissolution of the state assembly to hold fresh elections and obtain a mandate from Sabah folk to convince the federal government.

This uneasy relationship between state and federal government was resolved in the 1986 elections when PBS was swept back into office with a landslide victory.

Immediately thereafter, PBS applied to join BN and this time the federal government had no choice but to admit it based on the fact that Sabah folk desired the party to represent them at federal level.

Prior to the 1994 state elections, PBS quit BN and stood independently. It managed to return to power but collapsed within a month.

At the time, chief minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan was embroiled in a corruption investigation, which led to a political move by the federal government.

After it became clear that PBS no longer had the federal support, most of the party’s elected representatives jumped ship to BN.

From then on, Sabah was governed by BN until PH won the general election in 2018.

Musa Aman (from Umno-BN) was first sworn in as chief minister, due to the support from Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), to form the state government with a simple majority (31 out of 60 seats).

However, less than 24 hours later, PH defeated BN at federal level, leading to five assemblymen from the BN coalition changing allegiance to Warisan, the main PH-allied local party.

As a result, Warisan leader Mohd Shafie Apdal was sworn in and formed the coalition government.

In conclusion, history tells us that there is a strong pattern and connection of federal-state relations that led the leading local party hitching itself to the federal wagon.

Therefore, given the dependency characteristics of Sabah politics, it’s hard to imagine the state becoming the true kingmaker for the next general election. – August 29, 2022.

* Esther Sinirisan Chong is a member of Agora Society. She was born and raised in the Land Below the Wind. Her research interest lies in education and government policies, and the history and heritage of East Malaysia.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.