BARISAN Nasional (BN) will find it difficult to wrest Selangor from Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the next general election despite its impressive back-to-back victories in the Malacca and Johor state elections, analysts said.

And despite the grand announcement of Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz entering politics and helping to boost Selangor Umno, their chances of taking back the state are slim, they said.

BN lost Selangor in 2008 and with each passing election since then, its share of seats has only declined – from winning 20 of 56 state seats in 2008 to 12 in 2013 and just four in 2018.

On the other hand, PH (former Pakatan Rakyat) has improved from 36 state seats (2008) to 44 (in 2013) and 51 (in 2018).

PH still has 40 state assemblymen in Selangor, although the Sheraton Move defections, led by former Selangor menteri besar Mohamed Azmin Ali, have cut the coalition’s numbers.

As it stands now, the PH assemblymen comprise 19 from PKR, 15 from DAP and six from Amanah.

The opposition is led by BN (five), Perikatan Nasional (five), Pejuang (three), Parti Bangsa Malaysia (two) and Warisan (one).

Most urbanised state

One of the main stumbling blocks for BN to recapture Selangor is the highly urbanised nature of the state, said International Islamic University Malaysia’s Lau Zhe Wei.

“Selangor has more urban seats with a strong non-Malay presence (than other states)” he said.

“And of the 56 seats, it’s very hard to see PKR and DAP losing more than 20.”

But more than that, Lau said, BN’s hold on Malay voters is not as strong as in other states.

While 37 of the 56 seats in Selangor are Malay-majority seats, BN only has five after winning the Semenyih by-election in 2019.

And of the 19 seats with above 70% Malay voters, Umno only has four. The seats that are now held by BN are Sungai Air Tawar, Sungai Burong, Sungai Panjang, Hulu Bernam and Semenyih.

Lau said BN did not win any of the 19 non-Malay-majority seats, signalling a major weakness among its non-Malay component parties – MCA and MIC.

“So while there is a lot of excitement with Tengku Zafrul coming into the state, it’s hard to see how BN can capture 29 seats in Selangor,” the political science lecturer said.

“Let’s not forget that BN has to win another 24 seats from its current five.”

Poster boy in Selangor

Another reason why BN has also found it difficult to win back Selangor in the past two elections, said Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, is because it lacks a credible menteri besar candidate.

“While it is interesting to see them want to field Tengku Zafrul in the parliamentary seat of Kuala Selangor, this won’t win them the state,” said the Universiti Malaya political science lecturer.

At most, it can win back two to three parliamentary seats in the rural areas, he said.

“They should field Tengku Zafrul in a state seat, too, if they really want him to be the poster boy in Selangor,” he said.

Awang Azman said it will give BN a stronger boost if it can find a menteri besar candidate who is popular and has integrity. – August 10, 2022.