SARAWAK Chief Minister Abang Johari Openg is giving mixed signals on Barisan Nasional’s chances in the by-election for the Pujut state seat vacated by DAP’s Dr Ting Tiong Choon, who was disqualified on grounds of his former  Australian citizenship.

On Saturday, Abang Johari told reporters at the Satok Ramadan bazaar in Kuching that “it is an uphill task for BN” to wrest the Chinese-majority seat in Miri from DAP, but in the same breath, said “we still feel that we can win”.

That double talk, according to political analyst James Chin, is Abang Johari playing mind games with the opposition.

Chin said BN has an even chance of winning but it will all depend on who DAP fields.

The director of Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania, told The Malaysian Insight that DAP will be in a strong position to retain the seat if it fields the state party secretary and former one-term Piasau assemblyman, Alan Ling Sie Kiong.

Ling lost his Piasau seat in last year’s state election to BN-SUPP Sebastian Ting, a former political aide to former energy, green technology and water minister and Miri MP, Peter Chin Fah Kui.

Pujut and the BN held seats of Piasau and Senadin make up the Miri parliamentary seat held by PKR’s Dr Michael Teo.

“Apart from people knowing who he is, Alan has found a lot of support since he lost his Piasau seat,” Chin said.

“To many people, he is an effective assemblyman and he should be in the state assembly.

“He definitely will be a major contender if he is picked.”

Apart from Ling, Chin said, he could see no one else capable of retaining the seat for DAP as the party “does not have a lot of talent in Miri”.

For BN to have a chance at upsetting the cart, Chin said it must again cash in on the tried and tested “Adenan factor” – former chief minister Adenan Satem’s election promises of winning greater autonomy for Sarawak in line with the Malaysia Agreement 1963, securing the return of state rights lost in the last 54 years, and securing a greater share of the wealth from minerals mined in the state, such as a  20% royalty instead of the 5% it is receiving for its oil and gas.

Adenan standing up to Putrajaya on Sarawak rights won him many admirers, and votes that most analysts agree caused the major swing in Chinese voters which led to DAP losing five of the 12 seats it had before the assembly was dissolved.

DAP lost the “marginal” seats of Dudong, Batu Kawa and Piasau, the “fairly safe” Repok, and the “safe” Meradong.

When Abang Johari said “we still feel that we can win”, he must also be referring to the manner in which DAP won the Pujut seat last year.

Characteristic of the vote swing in many Chinese-majority constituencies in the election, DAP and the disqualified Ting lost 11.29% of the votes won in the 2011 election on the way to beating the so-called “BN direct candidate” Hii King Chiong.

“The Adenan factor is still something DAP has to contend with,” Chin said.

“Since succeeding him, Abang Johari has not abandoned any of Adenan’s promises. He’s in fact continuing with them.”

Adenan died in office last February due to heart complications.

DAP and the state BN have said they would only meet on the by-election after the Gawai festival, which falls on June 1.

For BN, picking a candidate may not be such a straightforward matter.

Abang Johari, who is also the state BN chairman, would have to tiptoe round the state’s political minefield to make the pick.

At the last election, Adenan had picked Hii from the pro-BN United People’s Party (UPP), upsetting the Sarawak United Peoples’ Party (SUPP) which considers the seat to traditionally belong to it.

UPP was formed by former SUPP members who had lost in the 2011 party elections.

Since UPP is not a member of the coalition, Hii had to resign his UPP membership to stand as a “BN direct candidate”.

SUPP president Dr Sim Kui Hian had only last week reiterated that the Pujut seat “belongs to SUPP” and the candidate for the by-election should be “a candidate from a BN party”.

As SUPP and UPP play out their political manoeuvres to again stir friction in BN and test the state chief’s political prowess, Abang Johari disclosed last Saturday that he has “received the list of potential candidates from both SUPP and UPP”.

He described the list as “quite lengthy”.

“A lot of names.”

But Chin believed the wealthy Hii could still be the front runner to re-contest the seat which he lost by 1,759 votes in a four-way fight.

Hii polled 7,140 votes to Dr Ting’s 8,899 votes to while PAS Sarawak Commissioner Jofri Jaraiee polled 513 votes and the incumbent and DAP rebel Fong Pau Teck managed a mere 375 votes.

Jofri and Fong, despite their poor showing and losing their deposits, have both said they would contest in the by-election.

Fong, who was sacked by DAP in November 2013 for “going against the party” in the May general election of that year and for refusing to make the monthly contribution of 10% of his RM1,500 salary to the party, could be backed by the Sarawak Independence Alliance, a non-governmental organisation that is also fighting for Sarawak autonomy and rights. 

Nomination day is on June 20 for the Pujut by-election, which is on July 4.– May 29, 2017.