PAS is expected to retain Terengganu in the 15th general election (GE15) but only with a small margin, political analysts said.

They said the issue with PAS is linked to its weakness at the administrative level, rejection among voters and the loss of backing from its staunch supporters.

At the same time, sources in Umno, meanwhile, are still not convinced that the party will be able to win the state due to its own internal rifts and candidate issues.

Political observers told The Malaysian Insight that PAS will find it difficult to repeat its excellent performance in GE14 due to inefficiency and issues that beleaguer its administration in the state.

Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UniSZA) analyst Dr Azmi Omar said there were claims of cronyism being practised in the state government.

“It is said that these supporters are given disproportionate salaries but the state is not profitable. This is an issue of inefficiency, a management issue.

“And then there are basic problems such as lack of proper garbage collection and such; these fundamental issues ultimately lead to people’s dissatisfaction,” he said.

Azmi said if these issues are not addressed, people who previously voted for PAS will switch their support in GE15.

He, however, said the support will not automatically shift to Umno, it could also move to Pakatan Harapan (PH).

“Although we know that the political landscape in the east coast is dominated by these two parties, the choice is not necessarily Umno, it also depends on Umno’s offer to the people.

“If the offer does not reach them, it is possible that the voters will switch to the third bloc, which is Pakatan Harapan. Otherwise, they will sabotage the vote by spoiling it or not voting,” he said.

Azmi also said that voting for PH would not cause the opposition to win but would split the votes for PAS.

“Because of that there will be a reduction in seats for PAS, but we cannot say the number for now,” he said.

In GE14, PAS wrested Terengganu from Barisan Nasional (BN) with a simple majority after winning more than half of the 32 seats in the state assembly (DUN).

However, out of the 22 seats won by PAS, seven state assembly seats clinched with slim majorities – including Kota Puteri, Jabi, Ladang, Pengkalan Berangan, Kuala Berang and Ajil.

At the parliamentary level, three of the six seats won by PAS were also in a dangerous position because they were secured with margins of less than 10,000 votes.

The seats are Setiu, Kemaman and Kuala Nerus, whose representative Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali, had announced his exit from PAS to become an independent candidate last March.

As long as it isn’t PAS

Research outfit Ilham Centre pinpointed a distinct trend on social media linked with voters’ dissatisfaction with the PAS administration – not only in Terengganu but also in Kelantan and Kedah.

Its executive director Hisommudin Bakar said there was confusion as to whether the PAS state governments could survive just by looking at its performance in the Malacca and Johor elections.

He explained that in the state polls, the number of votes for PAS doubled – but this is largely due to the presence of its ally Bersatu in these two states.

However, Bersatu is not a force in the east coast states, he added.

“If we focus on Terengganu, is Bersatu strong in this state? How many Bersatu supporters are there in one parliamentary constituency?”

He said the strength of Bersatu in PAS-held states depended on PAS itself, and as such the Islamist party was unlikely to benefit from additional Bersatu votes there.

He also expects the support of out-of-town voters who once contributed a large number of votes in GE14 to change.

“It’s just that we still don’t have an accurate study to measure the rejection. From our findings, when PAS or Umno voters are asked, they would say that their respective parties would win.

“But if we ask outside voters, what we get is 50-50. They will say that PAS will fall and when we ask further about it, they can’t give a precise answer,” he said.

Even so, he said that PAS will definitely lose the marginal seats if the wave of voters’ dissatisfaction continues until GE15.

At the same time, Hisommudin said natural factors such as deaths among “channel one” voters, or the elderly, also play a big impact.

He said there would be a big drop in the number of votes compared to GE14 due to Covid-19 fatalities.

“The usual natural death rate in the general election is around 1,000 voters for one term or one (seat). But with the high number of Covid-19 deaths, we estimate there would be a huge reduction in the number of votes.

“In such a context, it means that Umno and PAS will lose their regular voters. And they will be replaced by young people whose thinking is more critical, not tied to the parties and are more responsive to current issues,” he said.

Hisommudin described the scenario as a clash of old doctrines and a new wave that would support parties other than PAS, thus creating the “asal bukan PAS” movement.

“Voters have already rejected PAS. It’s just that we still haven’t been able to measure how big the impact is. But what we see is the “asal bukan PAS” trend is leading in that direction,” he said.

Trouble in Umno

Meanwhile, sources within Umno also admitted that for now the party would still be unable to defeat PAS in Terengganu in GE15.

But they said PAS would only win marginally.

“At the moment from the work we have done so far this July, we know that Umno cannot defeat PAS.

“We would lose, but our losses would be slim. Maybe PAS can only win 17 or 18 seats,” a source said.

The source said the trend may change as GE15 gets closer and if Umno can fortify its machinery and field candidates who are well received by the people.

“The problem is that Umno’s campaigning is not as good as it used to be. But we understand that it may be because there are some constraints, such as funds.

“In addition, Terengganu Umno has to present more young candidates, and not just candidates known among Umno supporters. They must be acceptable to all,” he said.

He said Terengganu Umno should not name problematic candidates again in GE15.

State Bersatu secretary Mohd Zaid Sulaiman is confident that the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition will continue to excel in Terengganu after PAS had agreed in principle to allow Bersatu to contest in 10 state seats.

“It has already been announced that Bersatu will contest in Teregganu. Our target is 10 seats, and this cooperation between Bersatu and PAS indeed shows positive development,” he said.

He explained that by joining forces, Bersatu and PAS can win Umno seats.

“For example, in Bukit Besi in the last election, Umno narrowly won by a margin of only 46 votes.

“So if we mix PAS’ 5,724 votes and Bersatu’s 487 votes, of course we will win,” he said.

Zaid, however, admitted the PN coalition will face an uphill climb, especially on the issue of the state government’s performance, which would weaken support.

“But for me, it is a small issue and the state government is also trying to improve that weakness, so these grouses will not last until GE15,” he said. – July 28, 2022.