PAKATAN Harapan risks losing Negri Sembilan as support for the coalition ebbs, political observers said.

PH governs Selangor and Penang, both won in 2008, and Negri Sembilan, which it took over in 2018.

PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim has said that he is confident of keeping all three states, but analysts disagreed.

Voter support for the coalition is solid in Selangor and Penang but not so in Negri Sembilan, they said.

The opposition won Selangor and Penang in elections that Barisan Nasional lose the two-thirds majority that the federal government had held for more than 50 years.

Anwar recently said the three states are showing tremendous improvement in voter support compared to other states but stressed that more work has to be done to send a clear signal to the people.

He said PH could retain the three states in the next general election while also working to win more.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said Negri Sembilan is a possible loss because it has a demography similar to that of Malacca, where PH last year suffered a crushing defeat to Barisan Nasional.

“Considering how BN won in Malacca, PH is in a shaky position in Negri Sembilan, unlike in Selangor and Penang,” Hisomuddin said.

“Plus, the opposition itself is not solid at the moment, given the internal rifts. The picture is worrying.

“It is safe to say that PH can retain Selangor and Penang but not Negri Sembilan. It is also possible that PH could lose some seats in Selangor,” said Hisomuddin.

PH encountered back-to-back defeats in the Johor, Malacca and Sarawak elections. Observers blamed the losses on infighting, which some opposition leaders had admitted to.

Some BN leaders are pressuring Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob to call for a snap election, stressing that now is the perfect time for BN to reclaim what it lost in the last polls.

But PH lawmakers said the government must prioritise the needs of the people, who are facing soaring inflation, instead of jockeying for power.

Prof James Chin of Tasmania University said PH has a good chance of keeping Selangor and Penang without having to get its act together

“Every other state is a 50/50 chance. Selangor and Penang should not be a problem for PH.”

“They can still win in the current scenario because they have been the government for quite some time and the way things are run in the two states, most of the people are happy,” he said.

Achilles heel

Veteran political observer, Mohd Sayuti Omar said Amanah’s own weakness as a coalition in PH may contribute to Negri Sembilan’s downfall.

He said the party has not been able to gather strength to make PH stronger in that state.

“Amanah’s strength can be questioned here. Especially in Negri Sembilan. Amanah after the Sheraton Move is not as solid as before. Since the collapse of PH, Amanah has not been able to become as strong as PKR or DAP.

“We see internal rift in PKR and DAP but the two parties manage to deal with it but Amanah could not. The internal issue in Amanah has not settled,” he said.

He added in a state like Negri Sembilan, Amanah could have easily won the Malay voters.

“It should be easy for Amanah as a Malay Muslim party to win the hearts of the Malays in a state like Negri Sembilan.”

“If Umno and PAS cooperate, PH can say goodbye to Negri Sembilan and in Selangor, Amanah could also lose some seats to Umno and PAS,” he said.

Amanah currently has 11 members of parliament - five in Selangor, two in Perak and one each in Kedah, Pahang, Negri Sembilan and Johor.

The party has 22 state representatives with six in Selangor, five in Perak, four in Kedah, three in Negri Sembilan, two in Penang and one each in Johor and Malacca. – July 25, 2022.