SARATOK MP Ali Biju’s days in Bersatu are numbered as he is expected to follow Puncak Borneo MP Willie Mongin in dumping the ailing peninsula-based party helmed by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, analysts said.

Mongin, a first-term MP who won the seat in the 2018 general election on the PKR ticket, recently announced that he has applied to join Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the lead party in the four-party ruling Sarawak coalition Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).

Ali also won his Iban-majority seat on the PKR ticket but both he and Mongin were later sacked by PKR for their role in the so-called Sheraton Move that toppled the Pakatan Harapan government in February 2020.

Ali and Mongin are also deputy ministers in the current Barisan Nasional-led federal government with Ali the deputy minister of energy and natural resources and Mongin the second deputy minister of plantation industries and commodities.

“Political survival? Definitely,” University of Tasmania’s James Chin and Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Awang Pawi told The Malaysian Insight.

“Everyone knows that for Willie or Ali to defend their seats, they have to make the jump. In the case of Willie, he knows that it would be extremely difficult for him to retain his seat if he were to defend it on non-GPS parties’ banner,” Awang Azman said.

“This is political survival. Only the GPS ticket is seen to be able to give him that win.”

To Chin, dumping Bersatu is more than a political survival.

“They do not have a choice,” he said. 

Chin said the Malacca and Johor state elections have shown that Bersatu is a weak party, a fact which Awang Azman agreed with.

Apart from helming a weak party, Muhyiddin, who was appointed prime minister amid a political crisis but had to resign after 17 months after losing parliamentary support, no longer has the political clout to pressure Sarawak Premier Abang Johari Openg to make concessions so that the two MPs could defend their respective seats on the Bersatu ticket in the next general election, Awang Azman and Chin said.

“After he was ousted as prime minister, Muhyiddin lost the power to make political deals. He could not appeal on their behalf,” they said.

“GPS has told Muhyiddin in not so many words that there is nothing he could do because Bersatu has lost big in Malacca and Johor,” said Chin.

“There’s no reason to think that if they come to Sarawak, they can do something. People have lost faith in Bersatu.

“So it’s time for Ali and Mongin to reposition themselves.”

Referring to Mongin’s application, Chin said given the position he is in and the fact that he could not expect to successfully defend his seat as a Bersatu candidate or an independent, “his only choice is to beg GPS to allow him to stand there”.

Puncak Borneo is a Bidayuh-majority seat on the outskirts of Kuching.

“GPS at present holds all the cards,” said Chin.

He also said PBB has moreover groomed someone to wrest the seat back.

On Ali, Chin said sooner or later he would have to apply to join one of the GPS component parties.

Apart from PBB, the other parties in GPS are Sarawak United Peoples’ Party, Parti Rakyat Sarawak and Progressive Democratic Party. 

“GPS is so strong now that the coalition can actually say no to them and has no electoral consequence. They can stand as independents but are not in the position to threaten GPS,” Chin said.

Awang Azman, nonetheless, warned that there could be a backlash from GPS members if the coalition accepts the two.

He said GPS, particularly PBB, must be concerned that taking them could just trigger protests in a coalition that prides itself as a model of political unity. – July 3, 2022.