NAJIB Razak’s presence in Barisan Nasional’s (BN) election campaign in Johor is a wild card, with political analysts unable to predict conclusively whether it will benefit the coalition.

On the one hand, the former prime minister, convicted of graft and is appealing, is clearly popular with some voters, although this may not automatically translate into votes.

On the other, there are many, especially among the older generation and rural voters, who still believe he has not done anything wrong.

And BN would not be allowing him to campaign if it did not think he could influence the voters, the analysts said.

Lau Zhe Wei, associate professor with International Islamic University Malaysia’s political science department, said Najib is still popular in the rural areas.

“He is still a driving force for BN. If he isn’t, would BN leaders allow him to campaign?”

Lau told The Malaysian Insight that Najib is still remembered and appreciated for the cash handouts – Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia – given by his administration to low-income Malaysians.

“In contrast to Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) unpopular decisions to reduce the handouts (after ousting Najib), Najib is charming. For the rural voters, they feel that they benefit more under Najib and BN,” he said.

The Johor elections on March 12, which have no bearing on Parliament, will still be affected by these sentiments.

“It may not translate into overwhelming support but it will help BN to a certain extent,” said Lau.

Political analyst Lum Chih Feng also agreed with Lau that Najib’s popularity does not mean Johor voters will choose BN.

“People are enthusiastic with Najib around because he is a former prime minister. But this does not mean they will support BN,” he said.

Najib has started campaigning in Johor and drew a crowd in Johor Baru recently where a lion dance performance took place, photos on his Facebook showed.

Lum said any support for Najib among Chinese voters will probably come from senior citizens.

“These older voters have no reservations about MCA or BN and are more fond of them,” he said.

Najib, who is Pekan MP, will still be popular in Malay-majority constituencies where his Bossku brand has traction, Lum said.

He also expects the Johor elections to see older folk coming out to vote rather than youth who may not be bothered to return home to cast their ballots from other states where they live and work.

In July 2020, Najib was sentenced to 12 years’ jail and fined RM210 million after being convicted of misappropriating RM42 million of SRC International Sdn Bhd funds. He is still free pending his appeal.

Despite this, veteran journalist Cheah See Kian said there has never been a strong anti-Najib campaign, especially among Malay voters.

“Some will even say that Najib’s wife, Rosmah Mansor, is to be blamed for his downfall,” he said.

Najib is still welcomed wherever he goes, Cheah said.

This is also because Najib has cleverly shed his elite image after his tenure as prime minister and made himself look like “one with the people by mingling with them”, said political analyst Wong Chin Huat.

And it is also because PH’s battle cry against Najib – the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal and his corruption charges – has lost its appeal with the voters.

“Voters might be curious to see if Najib can make a comeback,” said Wong.

“We don’t know if any of this can translate into votes. We only know that PH and the opposition no longer rouse the people’s anger.” 

Najib also helped BN campaign in the Malacca state elections last November, where the coalition won handsomely.

Since then, pundits have speculated whether Najib is attempting a comeback as prime minister.

Cheah said this is why the Johor elections are important for Najib’s future.

If BN wins, it will help strengthen Najib’s position in the next general election, which is due by July next year.

Lau, however, feels that even if BN wins and Najib is credited for his help, he still cannot make a comeback because of his criminal conviction.

“Najib has a better future as an adviser or a special envoy. As prime minister, it is unlikely. There will be a backlash,” he said.

Nomination for the Johor polls is today and early voting is on March 8.

There are 2.5 million people on the electoral roll. – February 26, 2022.