GABUNGAN Parti Sarawak’s landslide victory in last Saturday’s state elections will reshape national politics and force Putrajaya to respect the federal-state relationship, political analysts said.

The coalition won 76 of the 82 seats in the state assembly.

To Sarawak-born Asian political expert James Chin of the University of Tasmania, the landslide victory is a referendum on the four-party coalition’s continued push to create a state-within-a-state.

The win is tacit approval for GPS to shut out all elements of peninsular Malayan political culture and to nurture a strong Sarawak identity and state nationalism, he said, in reference to GPS’ tag line “Sarawak First”.

“The massive victory is a vote for GPS to further pursue its Sarawak identity agenda and full autonomy despite Putrajaya’s misgivings.

“This involves pushing for decentralisation across the board and giving Sarawak the maximum autonomy, as envisaged by the framers of the Malaysia Agreement 1963.”

Chin said the poll win would be the start of “an interesting experiment” that deals with how a highly centralised federation like Malaysia might have the potential to change for the better by decentralising and allowing the individual states a high degree of autonomy without forcing on them a one-size-fits-all political model.

The Sarawak election results sent “a clear message” to Putrajaya that the GPS non-confrontational approach to addressing unhappiness over federal-state relations, as opposed to the style of the two other competing parties in the election – Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK) and Sarawak People’s Aspiration Party (Aspirasi) which advocate for outright independence – is the acceptable path for most Sarawak people, he said.

“Most Sarawakians are not willing to shed blood for independence yet. They obviously want self-determination but are willing to live with Putrajaya for now.”

Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian said the state elections were pivotal for national politics.

The major coalitions in the national scene, the Umno-led Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional, and the weak central government have all been keeping a close watch on GPS performance in the election, he said earlier.

He had said the more seats GPS has, the more they can demand in the future.

“No longer are they just fixed deposits. Now they are kingmakers. They can make or break a government,” he said.

He said the massive win had given Chief Minister Abang Johari Openg a stronger say in the future direction of his state, the autonomy that he seeks and also influencing who gets to Putrajaya.

However, Universiti Malaysia Sabah political expert Lee Kuok Tiung warned against reading too much into the results of the elections.

Lee said the win might not translate into another in the general election.

He points to a tendency of the Chinese in Sarawak to vote the Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), a component part in the ruling coalition to the state assembly, but send the opposition to Parliament.

In 2018, all six Chinese-majority parliamentary seats in Sarawak were won by DAP on the back of the 1MDB financial scandal and a strong anti-Najib Razak sentiment.

Nonetheless, Lee said wresting some of the Chinese federal seats back is not something that is impossible.

He said it would depend to some extent on the performance of the SUPP assemblymen, who won in the state election, in the next few months.

Even without the Chinese seats, Lee said GPS will “almost certainly” continue to be the kingmakers at the next 15th general election.

Universiti Putra Malaysia’s Jayum Jawan said the massive election win “shows to Kuala Lumpur that the people (of Sarawak) of all ethnic groups are united behind GPS’ Sarawak First push.

“This is one of the rare elections in which the ruling party has the landslide support in quite a long time. The opposition is left with a paltry six seats between DAP (2) and Parti Sarawak Bersatu (4).

Jawan said the momentum of the state election would likely be carried over to the GE15 when it comes but not in Chinese areas.

He said the momentum would be most felt in Malay, Melanau and to a large extent in Dayak constituencies – GPS strongholds.

Like Lee, he is “a bit cautious” about predicting how the Chinese would vote.

“Chinese voters are known to split their support between having representatives in government, via SUPP and in opposition via DAP.

“It has always been argued that the Chinese are the calculative ones who want to ensure their voices are heard in government and outside, the ‘barking dogs” who raise issue those in government may not be able to do,” he said in reference to SUPP. – December 22, 2021