MEOR Hakimi Abdul Halim was one of the tens of thousands who returned to Kelantan five years ago to help keep PAS in the state government at the 13th general election.

This time, the private sector executive is likely to throw his support behind a different party in the 14th general election, as anger towards the Kelantan government sweeps through outstation voters.

Strategists from the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional coalitions said voters like Meor Hakimi were instrumental in keeping PAS in power since the 1990 general election – the year the party took over the state government.

This time, they will be crucial as to whether PAS keeps Kelantan or whether the Islamist party’s 28-year reign ends. And both coalitions are furiously courting them in the hopes of being the next to rule Kelantan.  

The Kelantanese strong sense of regionalism is well-known among Malay Muslims. Unlike Malays from other states, Kelantanese rarely vote anywhere else apart from their home state.

“Even Kelantanese in their 50s who have lived outside most of their lives go back to Kelantan to vote,” said Tanah Merah Umno division member Hafizi Sabudin.

Most outstation Kelantanese are aged between 21 and 40 and are wage-earners in the Klang Valley, Johor and Penang.  

Migrant Kelantanese make up almost 40% of the state’s voting population, said Tumpat Amanah chief Wan Johari Wan Omar.  

In 2004, they did not return in enough numbers and the voter turnout in Kelantan was about 70%, said Wan Johari.

“We almost lost Kelantan in that election,” Wan Johari said, referring to how PAS only managed to get a two-seat majority in the state assembly.

After that, PAS formed a special committee to court outstation voters, which Wan Johari headed when he was in PAS.  

In 2008 and 2013, iconic Kelantan menteri besar Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat pleaded with outstation voters to return and PAS gained two-thirds of all seats in the 45-member assembly in both elections.

But GE14 will be tough for all parties in Kelantan, said Wan Johari.

“The outstation vote will be split three ways. Because we have our programmes to persuade them and BN and PAS are doing the same. We can’t really see the trend of how they will vote until the state assembly is dissolved.”

The Husam-Nik Aziz factor

Studies by independent research outfit the Ilham Centre revealed that there is a strong undercurrent of resentment among Kelantanese who live and work in the state towards the state government.

A recent The Malaysian Insight straw poll also found more than half of those interviewed in five districts said they are fed up with poor local council services and a lack of jobs and development.

Meor Hakimi, who is originally from Salor on the outskirts of Kota Baru, also feels this despite the fact that he lives in the Klang Valley.

“It’s like there is no improvement every time I go back to Kelantan. The roads are still bad, the rubbish is not picked up regularly. Kota Baru is like the most backward of all the state capitals.”

In 2013, he supported PAS because of Nik Aziz and former senior executive councillor Husam Musa, who is now in Amanah.

“Now without Nik Aziz, PAS seems to act differently,” said Meor Hakimi but declined to go into details.

This trend of Kelantanese voters turning their backs on PAS because of Nik Aziz’s absence could contribute to a loss of between 10% and 20% for the Islamist party, said political analyst Hisommudin Bakar.

“He had such a strong, winning personality that even Umno members secretly voted for him,” said Hisommudin, who is Ilham Centre’s executive director.

Nik Aziz died in February 2015.

The 2015 schism in PAS, which saw the birth of Amanah, also helped erode support for the former. Some of PAS’ most influential leaders left the Islamist party for Amanah.

They included Husam, who when he was state exco, was widely known as Nik Aziz’s right-hand man and very popular with Kelantanese professionals. 

After he joined Amanah, Husam actively exposed the current PAS’ government’s failures, such as the people’s highway project and a suspicious carbon-trading scheme.  

Bloc voters

BN, too, has also not been slow exploiting the discontent towards Kelantan PAS.

Businessman Hafizi, who is originally from Tanah Merah, said three out four outstation Kelantanese he met have expressed support for BN.  

“PH has some support among outstation voters and even residents but it’s not that much. BN is stronger, especially among business people,” he said.

BN’s current weakness, said Hafizi, is winning over voters aged between 21 and 30.

“Support from them will probably go up when we unveil our policies for youth in our manifesto.”   

Hisommudin said it is difficult to get an accurate read on how the outstation vote will go because these voters are spread out all over the country.

But because they tend to live in highly urbanised environments and are more exposed to alternative ideas, these voters tend to be more critical than their counterparts who live and work in Kelantan.

“It’s difficult to determine who will win them over. But they usually vote in a bloc. So, which ever coalition wins their confidence will get a big boost in GE14.” – February 1, 2018.