MALACCA will go to the polls on November 20 following the collapse of the state government after four lawmakers withdrew support for chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali.

This is the second government to be ousted in the state via defections after the 2018 general election.

Barisan Nasional had a strong hold over the state from 2008 to 2014 but the state fell to Pakatan Harapan in 2018.

The PH government proved to be short-lived, however, when in March 2020, DAP’s Pengkalan Baru representative Norhizam Hassan Baktee and PKR’s Rembia assemblyman Muhammad Jailani Khamis defected.

Baktee was also one of the four assemblymen who led the state government to collapse for the second time last month, leading to snap polls to be called while the country is still recovering from the effects of Covid-19.

The Malaysian Insight takes a closer look at the performance of the political parties and coalitions in Malacca in the last three general elections.

Malacca has 28 state seats and six parliamentary seats.

2008

In the 2008 general election, BN component parties Umno, MIC and MCA saw strong support from Malacca voters.

BN won 23 seats in GE12 while Pakatan Rakyat, made up of PKR, DAP and PAS, won five.

PAS went up against Umno in Kuala Linggi, Tanjung Bidara, Lendu, Taboh Naning, Durian Tunggal, Asahan, Pantai Kundor, Bukit Baru, Ayer Molek, Teluk Mas, Serum, Merlimau and Sungai Rambai. It lost every contest.

PKR stood in Ayer Limau, Rembia, Gadek, Machap, Sungai Udang, Paya Rumput and Rim. It, too, lost all seats to Umno.

DAP was the only party that managed to snag seats – against Gerakan in Bachang, Duyong and Bemban  and against MCA in Ayer Keroh, Kesidang, Kota Laksamana and Banda Hilir.

Of the 295,207 votes cast in the state, 55% or 163,917 went to BN while Pakatan Rakyat received 42.1% of the votes.

While the coalition performed well in the state, the same cannot be said of BN’s performance nationwide.

Under Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s leadership, BN did not win a super-majority in the general election.

2014

Even though it lost two seats it has won the the last general election, BN continued to hold a majority in the state

Umno lost the Bukit Baru seat to PAS while MCA lost the Duyong seat to DAP.

DAP, PKR and PAS once again worked together in the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.

PKR took on Umno in Ayer Limau, Lendu, Rembia, Sungai Udang, Paya Rumput and Rim but lost in all the seats. It also lost to MIC in Gadek and MCA in Machap.

DAP was the only one successful party, winning six seats up, one more than the five it won in 2008.

It retained the Bachang, Ayer Keroh, Kesidang, Kota Laksamana and Banda Hilir seats and defeated MCA to take over the Duyong seat.

In total, BN still commanded the majority to form a state governed with 21 seats while the opposition won only seven seats.

Of the 376,763 votes cast, 53.41% or 201,228 voters voting went to BN. Pakatan Rakyat received 46.24% of the votes.

2018

GE14 saw the start of a new opposition coalition – Pakatan Harapan – which ended BN’s 60-year winning streak in the general elections.

BN only managed to win 13 seats In Malacca after winning more than 20 seats in the last two elections. The opposition won the rest of the 15.

The PH coalition born in 2018 comprises DAP, PKR, Bersatu and Amanah.

PAS went into the elections alone

The Rembia, Gadek, Machap Jaya and Durian Tunggal seats which were held by BN in the last two elections were won by the opposition.

PKR fought Umno for Rembia in 2008 and 2014 and lost but was lucky the third time, getting a majority of 1,814 votes.

Machap Jaya, previously known as Machap, was held by MCA, who lost it to PKR.

Amanah, a splinter of PAS, made its debut in the elections. It defeated incumbent Umno in Durian Tunggal. It also won the Bukit Katil seat, previously known as Bukit Baru, from PAS.

Bersatu, which was at the time led by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, also won two seats in Malacca.

The Paya Rumput seat which was held by Umno for two terms was lost to Bersatu which won with a 4,259-vote majority.

Telok Mas, another seat held by Umno for two terms, fell to Bersatu, which won with a 1,288-vote majority.

DAP continued to assert its dominance over the state, especially in the Chinese-majority seats, beating MCA, Gerakan and MIC to secure eight seats, up from the six in the last elections.

Gadek, which was held by Umno in 2008 and subsequently by MIC, went to DAP, which wonby a mere 307 votes.

MCA also lost the Bemban seat, which it had won in the last two elections, to DAP with a majority of 1,345.

In terms of the popular vote, PH won more votes than BN and PAS. It received 51%, or 213,993,  of the 417,884 votes cast.

2021 snap polls

According to data from pollster Ilham Centre, the biggest blocs of voters in the state are Chinese, working and living out of state, and youth.

In GE14, 84% of the Malacca population came out to vote. These were the people who helped PH win the state.

The pollster said PH stands to benefit from multi-cornered fights between the Malay parties.

Umno has decided to go its own way despite its alliance with PAS in Muafakat Nasional and its tenuous relationship with Bersatu. PAS and Bersatu meanwhile are united in Perikatan National.

The pollsters said 12 of the state seats are Malay-majority, where 70% of the voters are Malay.

Eleven other seats have between 51% and 69% Malay voters. The remaining five are non-Malay majority.

In Chinese-majority seats, the pollster said MCA does not stand a chance against DAP.

Political analyst Mazlan Ali agreed, saying the pattern of defeat for MCA is expected to hold in the snap polls. – October 30, 2021.