UMNO stands a better chance of winning more seats in the 15th general election with Barisan Nasional (BN) than with Perikatan Nasional (PN), analysts said as the latter coalition begins seat negotiations without its government ally.

This is because Umno has the advantage of a strong grassroots and loyalty of Malay voters.

Another advantage is one of its vice-presidents, Ismail Sabri Yaakob, is the prime minister. This can help Umno regain control of the federal government, which it lost in the 2018 election.

University Teknologi Malaysia researcher Mazlan Ali said Umno will have no problems without support from another Malay party, as it has captured at least 38% of Malay votes.

“Umno’s fixed deposit (among the Malay voters) is large and because of that, it can still win a lot of seats by itself,” Mazlan said.

Mazlan was commenting on the announcement by PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin last week that the coalition will leave Umno out of its seat negotiations. This is despite Umno and PN parties comprising the federal government.

Muhyiddin said seat talks will proceed this week between PN’s component parties: Bersatu (which he chairs), PAS, Gerakan, Star and SAPP.

Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan will be negotiating distribution of seats on the peninsula, he added.

Muhyiddin’s announcement was well-received by Umno leaders who said the party would not be weighed down by Bersatu, which does not have a strong grassroots network.

Umno still has to woo new voters

However, whether Umno is successful will depend on how the party courts young voters – who will determine the outcome of the election – which must be held by mid-2023 at the latest, said Mazlan.

The next national ballot will see more than 4.5 million voters who have reached the age of 21 cast their votes for the first time, while voting by then should also be open to 18-year-olds after laws to reduce the new minimum legal voting age are implemented.

Mazlan said Umno will still be able to attract younger voters despite the popular perception that this age group is more skewed to the opposition.

“Umno can attract young voters because not all of them necessarily support the opposition. Those in the rural areas still think highly of Malay nationalism.

“There is a possibility that they will support Umno. Youth voters are multifaceted, there are those who are apathetic about politics just as there are those who are highly political.

“There are those who can be swayed to support the party with monetary inducement. Umno has a lot of funds so it can influence these voters,” Mazlan said.

Political analyst Azmil Tayeb said Umno has no qualms about going alone at the polls because it has the advantage of its election machinery, grassroots support and administrative experience.

The Universiti Sains Malaysia academic said Umno shouldn’t face any issues in traditional seats that it has held for generations, as it is a well-known entity.

“In a situation where the votes are split, Malay voters tend to support the party as it has a reputation and has a foothold,” Azmil said, adding that this will make it difficult for Bersatu and PAS to challenge Umno.

However, the fact that support from the Malay electorate is divided between several parties will also mean that Umno won’t find the election all that easy either, Azmil added.

Meanwhile, Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi from Universiti Malaya said Umno will stand to benefit more as the federal government is under its control.

“Between the PN coalition and Umno, Malay voters will be more inclined to vote for the latter,” he said.

By region, he said PAS is strong on the peninsula’s east coast and will have a better advantage there, while Pakatan Harapan stands a better chance in Malacca and Negri Sembilan.

“However, we have to look at the voter demographic. If Malay voters represent more than 45% of the votes, the chances of Umno winning in the election is high,” said Awang Azman. – October 10, 2021.