UMNO stands to gain in the next general election if PAS supports incumbent candidates in seats contested over by Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), analysts said.

This is because Umno will defend all its parliamentary seats it won in the last general election in 2018, including those held by MPs who have defected to Bersatu.

PAS, which is in the PN coalition with Bersatu and in Muafakat Nasional (MN) with Umno, recently announced that it would be supporting the incumbents in the next general election.

This showed that the Islamist party was still insecure in its relationship with PN, said political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali.

The Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) academic said the party’s stance, announced by deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, would give Umno the advantage.

“If PAS supports the incumbents, then they will definitely have to support the Umno candidates because Umno owns most of the parliamentary seats (between the two parties),” Mazlan told The Malaysian Insight.

Tuan Ibrahim’s statement followed Bersatu’s decision to begin seat negotiations with all PN parties but Umno.

Mazlan said Tuan Ibrahim’s statement could further complicate the relationship between PAS, Umno and Bersatu, besides confusing PAS members.

“PAS does not seem to be fully committed to Bersatu. If there is a clash it is because PAS is a PN component party,” he said.

“PAS members are also wondering who to support – Bersatu or Umno? It will cause confusion and misunderstanding among its members,” he said.

The end of Muafakat Nasional?

Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said PAS was hoping to maintain good relations with Umno and work with Bersatu at the same time.

“PAS appears to be trying to play safe by appeasing both sides but the other parties are definitely not condoning the strategy. And it can destroy voters’ trust.

“PAS will definitely be judged for taking this approach when voters cast their ballots in GE15. It makes PAS look opportunistic,” said Awang Azman.

Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi recently hinted that his party’s cooperation with PAS was over.

However, Awang Azman said MN’s fate would only be known after Parliament is dissolved.

“PAS is playing a political game, which Umno and Bersatu will find difficult to forgive,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Tuan Ibrahim should not make such statements about PAS’ strategy.

“It obviously benefits Umno more than PN. Most of these seats involve BN MPs who jumped ship to Bersatu.

“In practical terms, the seats won by the incumbents remain theirs while the negotiations only involve seats that do not belong to PN and BN.

“But in the context of current developments, Zahid has already rejected cooperation with PN and given the impression that MN no longer exists,” said Hisommudin.

He predicted three-cornered fights in at least 165 constituencies on the peninsula as the three Malay-Muslim parties of Umno, Bersatu and PAS had failed to resolve if and how they would cooperate in the elections. – October 8, 2021.