VACCINATIONS may be able to bring down the number of daily Covid-19 cases in Malaysia by September if the country has a steady supply of vaccines and maintains the current rate of daily doses administered, said medical experts.

Conservative estimates indicate that Malaysia can get ahead of infections by September or October, depending on the size of the individual states.

“It is not really straightforward and depends on the coverage of vaccinations,” said Azrul Mohd Khalib, chief executive of Galen Centre for Health and Social Policy.

“The minimum standard is ensuring that as many people get at least one jab of a vaccine. The best is of course to complete vaccination with two jabs.”

“If the smaller states such as Negeri Sembilan, Perlis, Malacca, and Labuan have sufficient vaccine supply and are able to vaccinate their population without disruption, then they can expect their caseloads to decrease significantly by September,” said Azrul. 

Azrul added that Sarawak could also see a drop in cases by September as the state has been aggressive in its vaccination programme. He predicted that Klang Valley, Johor, Sabah, and other states will see a reduction of cases by October.

Universiti Putra Malaysia medical epidemiologist, Associate Professor Dr Malina Osman projects a reduction in infections if Malaysia can vaccinate 40% of the population.

“I think if we can achieve near 40% of full vaccination at national level, particularly in Selangor, then we will see a reduction in the number of active cases.”

“Based on current figures and expected daily vaccination rate, most likely we can achieve this earliest by early September” said Malina.

Malaysian Public Health Physicians Association President, Dr Zainal Ariffin Omar is optimistic that Malaysia can bring down the number of infections through vaccinations in the next two months.

“Depending on the vaccines and supply, as the coverage improves, the people vaccinated will be protected.

“The faster and greater the coverage, the faster we can reduce. If the schedule by the government is correct, we can start to see some reduction after 10% to 20% coverage, maybe in one to two months,” he said.

Malaysia has been placed under a lockdown, or phase one of the national recovery plan (NRP), since June 1. 

The enhanced movement control order (EMCO) has also been imposed in most parts of Selangor and several areas in Kuala Lumpur from July 3 to 16.

With the exception of Kelantan, Terengganu, Perak, Pahang, Perlis, Penang, and Sabah, phase one of the NRP has been extended indefinitely until the number of daily infections reduce to below 4,000, 10% of the population is vaccinated, and the capacity of healthcare facilities is no longer critical.

Malaysia’s daily infections remain high at above 7,000, with the highest number recorded yesterday at 9,180 cases, taking the cumulative caseload to 817,838. 

Selangor, the country’s most populous state, continues to contribute to the highest number of daily infections despite a large part of the state being under EMCO. The state recorded 4,400 new infections yesterday, bringing the total number of cases to 277,393.

Health authorities also warn that hospitals, including its intensive care units, are overstretched. – July 10, 2021.