MALAYSIA’S daily Covid-19 cases could climb to up to 3,000 infections after Hari Raya Aidilfitri if compliance to standard operating procedure (SOP) is poor, according to a Health Ministry forecast. 

According to the forecast, it is possible for the daily cases to hit 3,000 on May 15, if the infectivity rate (R0) rises to 1.2. 

Hari Raya falls on May 13 and 14. 

The daily tally could top 4,000 cases by the end of May if the R0 remains high.

Alternatively, if the compliance to SOP is high, the daily cases can stage a steady decline and fall to below 1,000 on May 15.  

This is based on the R0 assumption of 0.8. The downtrend is then expected to continue until the end of May, if the R0 is at 0.8.

The country’s R0 has remained at 1.16 for five days. 

The R-naught stood at below 1.0 prior to April 8. However, it has since remained over 1.0 ever since – reaching a peak of 1.19 on April 18.

Yesterday, the country’s infectivity rate stood at 1.16. 

The R0 indicates the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case. 

Between April 4 and 17, there was a 44.6% increase in positive cases. There were 9,507 positive cases reported in the first week and 13,742 in the following week. 

When it came to fatalities, 35 cases were reported in the preceding week and 49 in the following week. 

Health authorities have also stepped up testing capacity from 342,159 to 382,267. – April 23, 2021.