ON paper.

The two words capture aptly Pakatan Harapan’s hopes of making a major dent in Johor in the coming election.

On paper, it looks like 11 parliamentary seats and about a third of the 56 state assembly seats in Johor could fall to the Opposition in the next general election.

On paper, if victory is achieved in 12 state seats and the Opposition manages to retain the 17 it already holds, PH will take over the state government.

‎On paper, Johor DAP leader Liew Chin Tong estimates that it would take only a 10% swing of votes away from the BN for PH.

But elections are won and fought in real battlegrounds and not on paper.‎‎ Also, the Opposition have to contend with a feeling among some Johoreans that they should keep the state in Umno hands but send more Opposition MPs to Parliament.

“There is a strong chance that the 11 parliament seats will fall to PH but this depends on us maintaining the high non-Malay support towards PH like in 2013 and getting a strong enough swing from Johor Malays,” Liew told The Malaysian Insight.

“But whether this happens we will only know when the election is announced,” said Liew, who is also Kluang MP.

Rural but not remote

Liew said the 11 parliamentary seats are located on the Western part of Johor which the BN won with 55% or less of all votes cast.

The seats stretch from Johor’s North West border with Malacca such as Labis (winning majority 353 votes), Segamat (1,217 votes) to the Southern Johor seats of Pasir Gudang (935) and Terbrau (1,767).

The marginal state seats include Serom (winning majority 2,264), Pemanis (1,329), Kemelah (2,260) Tenang (1,586), Senggarang (2,083) and Gambir (310).

Almost all these constituencies are semi-urban said Liew. Although they contain sprawling villages, their residents live only 20 minutes away from the major towns of Batu Pahat, Muar, Kluang and Segamat.

This means their voters have access to alternative sources of information and are not cut off from the debate on national issues such as rising living costs, unemployment, good governance and corruption.

“These seats also have high populations of young voters who go to work in big cities such as Johor Baru, Malacca and the Klang valley,” said Liew, adding that this makes up about 30% of the area’s total voters.

So is it going to be a walk in the park for PH?

Not at all.

It is young Malays like Hakim Azman and Norhana Elias both of whom are below 40 years-old, whose hearts and minds the BN and PH are working hard to capture.

Bersatu’s Shukur Mohamad said this group of voters make up about two thirds of all voters, while those above 50 years of age make up the rest. Those above 50 are mostly BN supporters.

Hakim has witnessed ways in which the state government has improved the lives of the people of Labis, a town in the heart of northern Johor that gets its income primarily from palm oil.

“The state built a road connecting Labis to Bandar Muadzam (Pahang) and this has made travelling easier and increased business,” said the 26-year-old who has a small fruit stall in Labis.

But it’s the federal government that has dissatisfied a lot of people said Hakim, as the weak ringgit and the goods and services tax (GST) have driven up prices for food.

“A lot of people don’t like Najib because of how he’s managed the economy.”

Although Hakim has not made a concrete decision yet, he likes the current state government but is unsure about the administration in Putrajaya.

Shukur of Bersatu has heard similar sentiments from many of the young voters he met in Johor.

They tell us for Johor, they are going to give their vote to Umno but they will vote PH at parliament level. We have to work to change this.”

Vulnerable opposition

This sentiment could threatens the Opposition’s hold on the 17 state seats it won in the last general election as more than half were also won  with thin majorities of below 3,000 voters.‎

Another problem is the disenchantment felt by a lot of Opposition supporters after last year’s Sarawak state elections and the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections, said Liew.

PH parties fared terribly in both polls, with the DAP losing seats it had won in Sarawak. Opposition supporters have also been disheartened by the breakdown in ties between PAS and its former partners PKR and DAP.

Both Liew and Shukur of Bersatu, sees these problems and admit that for the Opposition to succeed in its aims in Johor, it needs to do more than just ride on Najib’s unpopularity.

“The Opposition needs to stand for more than just removing Najib. We need an agenda that the Johor people can believe in.”

‎In short, it needs to do much more to translate what’s on paper to reality. – May 12, 2017.