THE battle for the marginal seat of Kuala Selangor in the 14th general election (GE14) will be determined in Malay-majority Jeram, one of three state seats within the rural federal constituency, a political analyst said. 

Jeram is significant because it carries some 45% of the total number of voters in Kuala Selangor. Its voter profile is 82% Malays, Chinese (10%) and Indians (8%), according to Election Commission data. The two other state seats are Ijok and Bukit Melawati.

Political analyst Hisommudin Bakar from the Ilham Centre said to recapture Kuala Selangor, Pakatan Harapan needed at least 25% to 30% of Malay votes and most of this support must come from Jeram.

Jeram was taken by Barisan Nasional in the 2013 general election, with the Umno candidate defeating PAS, as in the two previous elections in 2004 and 2008.

Malay voters also formed the majority of the electorate in Ijok and Bukit Melawati at 60% and 52%, respectively.

Hisommudin said PH had a chance of retaking Kuala Selangor if it fielded its strategic director, Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad of Amanah, who was the MP for one term after winning in 2008 while he was still with PAS.

“The Dzulkefly factor, if he is a candidate, can swing the PAS vote more than the Amanah factor,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

He attributed this to the changed political landscape with PAS not being part of PH, in addition to Dzulkefly’s own character and personality which still appealed to his former constituents.

“Rational PAS voters can change,” said Hisommudin, who recently conducted field studies on voter sentiments in Kuala Selangor.

Dzulkefly, who is also Amanah’s strategic director, won Kuala Selangor in 2008 by 862 votes, thanks to a swing of some 14,500 votes from BN to the opposition. It was the year BN first lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament.

Back then, PAS was part of the opposition pact known as Pakatan Rakyat. The pact ended when PAS cut ties with DAP first and later, PKR. 

Dzulkefly was among a group of leaders in PAS who left to form splinter party, Amanah, in 2015, holding to the belief that collaboration with other allies PKR and DAP, was the only way to take Putrajaya.

In 2013, Dzulkefly, still a PAS candidate, lost the seat to BN’s Irmohizam Ibrahim by 460 votes.

Hisommudin said some of the Malay voters who previously voted for Umno would move to PH because of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who is now PH and Bersatu chairman.

Pundits have said the “Dr Mahathir factor” could be one of the reasons for an anticipated “Malay tsunami” in GE14.

However, where Kuala Selangor is concerned, gaining the Malay vote could be made difficult because of to a localised race and religion issue –the allocation of a 100ha Chinese cemetery in Jeram.

The cemetery was said to have been approved by the PKR-led Selangor government in Sept 2016 but locals claim it was done without consulting residents. Even now, it is still a sore point raised by bloggers critical of Selangor Menteri Besar Mohamed Azmin Ali.

Tough task ahead

Dzulkefly acknowledged the challenge he would face in Kuala Selangor if he were fielded because of the different political landscape than in 2008.

Of Jeram’s 19 polling districts, he won only eight in 2008 and 2013.

“It won’t be easy,” he said.

He said his success of 2008 could be repeated at the parliamentary level in Kuala Selangor provided the opposition’s machinery worked hard on the ground.

Party election machinery aside, Dzulkefly said he had to depend on the “social capital” he built while serving as MP.

There is a strong chance voters will remember his service and is backed by the fact that he lost by a small majority (460 votes) to BN’s Irmohizam in 2013. The margin is important because in that election, the number of Kuala Selangor voters also increased by about 15,000.

“PAS at the time had registered only 3,000 new voters,” Dzulkefly said of his former party.

Split voting took place in 2013, with about 1,700 voters choosing Dzulkefly for MP but voting BN at the state seat level.

“If there is a three-cornered fight this time, it will be much harder,” he said.

Welfare issues

A bigger challenge for the PH election machinery is the cost of living and welfare concerns of Kuala Selangor constituents, most of whom work in the agricultural sector.

“As a rural area, the main issue here is the welfare and economic concerns of the people,” Amanah’s Kuala Selangor election bureau chief B. Sivabalan told The Malaysian Insight.

Making ends meet is the main worry of Indian voters here, most of whom are either employees of plantations and estates or former estate workers. They form 22% of the electorate.

“(For former estate workers), while they lived in the estates, everything was available, such as housing and subsidised electricity. When they left the estates, they had to rebuild their lives,” Sivabalan said.

Analyst Hisommudin said based on his surveys, the Indians were worried over the same issues most Malaysians face – the rising cost of living, lack of job opportunities and their financial inability to own a home – but felt even more marginalised.

The Malaysian Insight met a local Indian who wanted to be known as Mohan. He said what people here wanted were jobs in Kuala Selangor itself so that they need not endure long and costly commutes to Kuala Lumpur, Shah Alam or Klang.

“There’s no work here, no jobs. Why not have factories here to give jobs to the people?”

Local boy

Irmohizam, the incumbent, said BN was aware of voters’ concerns, adding that more would be done to address them.

“Although there have been many changes in Kuala Selangor, I am aware of issues such as the cost of living, housing and others in the minds of the people.”

He said the people could expect more job opportunities in Ijok, which has potential to be an industrial hub when the West Coast Expressway (Lebuhraya Pesisiran Pantai Barat), which cuts through Kuala Selangor, is completed in early 2019.

The area also has tourism potential with its historical remains of colonial fortifications and famous firefly colony.

The BN government earlier this year completed upgrading works on a fishing jetty and the fish-landing hub which was launched by Prime Minister Najib Razak.

These developments convinced him that he would be able to retain the seat if he is fielded again, said the Kuala Selangor native who was born in Kg Kuantan, home of the fireflies.

“But I cannot be overconfident. I must be seen as an activist who fights for the people and brings their concerns to Parliament.

“They should know that they have a fighter who will champion their issues.” – December 13, 2017.