The Malaysian Insight is running a series on marginal parliamentary seats as the nation heads towards the 14th general election. In Kuala Kangsar, we look at how a precarious BN seat has been made safer by the PAS-PH feud.

ABOUT 7,600. That is the amount of additional votes Pakatan Harapan Perak claims it needs to win the Kuala Kangsar parliamentary seat in the 14th general election.

These voters are like Mohd Hashim Mohd Adnan, who sells handicrafts in the riverside arcade along Jalan Laksamana, a popular hangout for cendol and laksa in Kuala Kangsar.

Sales at his shop have plunged ever since the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was introduced in 2015, and he is likely to express his anger towards the ruling Barisan Nasional at the ballot box in GE14.

The problem for PH is that voters like Hashim and his neighbours are likely to vote for PAS, and this could translate into a win for BN.

Proof of this was in the 2016 Kuala Kangsar by-election, where a fragmented opposition did not pool resources and votes to defeat BN candidate Mastura Mohd Yazid’s 12,653 votes.

PAS’ Najihatussalehah Ahmad polled 5,684 votes, while Amanah’s Ahmad Termizi Ramli secured 4,883 votes.

Kuala Kangsar is an example of what is going be very common in west coast parliamentary seats in GE14 – marginal seats ripe for an opposition takeover but which could still be in be in BN’s hands because of three-cornered fights.

Islamist party PAS benefitted immensely from its partnership with PKR and DAP, and was able to expand into new territory on the peninsula’s west coast, in places like Kuala Kangsar.

Now, PAS is going to contest against BN and its former allies, who are in PH. Analysts have said such multi-candidate contests have historically benefitted the BN.

It is a problem that both PH and PAS know all too well. They are both hard at work taking stock of how much real support they have and, more importantly, how much more they need to pull ahead of their rivals.

A royal middle-class town

The town, which locals call “Kuala”, and from which the seat takes its name, is the historic seat of the Perak sultanate.

It is divided in half, north to south, by Sungai Perak, with the state seats of Bukit Chandan in the east and Manong in the west.

The parliamentary seat has 33,540 voters, of which 68% are Malays, 24% Chinese and 7% Indians.

Both state seats were won by BN in 2013 by a margin of less than 1,000 votes; Manong by 231 votes, and Bukit Chandan by 959.

BN’s Wan Mohammad Khair-il Anuar Wan Ahmad then had garnered 14,218 votes, to beat PAS’ Khalil Idham Lim Abdullah’s 13,136 votes. The winning majority was 1,082 votes.

Independent candidate Kamilia Ibrahim, a former Wanita Umno leader, obtained 447 votes.

A by-election was called last year after, Wan Mohammad Khair-il died in a helicopter crash while campaigning for Barisan Nasional in the Sarawak state election. His widow, Mastura, was selected to run and she surpassed her late husband’s performance by netting a 6,969 vote-majority.

Of the two state seats, Bukit Chandan is the more urbanised as it where the town centre is located. Manong encompasses suburbs and villages.

Many state and federal departments have offices in Kuala Kangsar. It has a public hospital, and the the Sultan Azlan Shah University in Bukit Chandan boasts a student and teaching population of about 4,200.

Some of the country’s oldest and renowned schools –SM Clifford and the Malay College of Kuala Kangsar – are there.

Because of the education institutions and government offices, Kuala Kangsar has a large middle-class population, said businessman Mohamad Alfa.

“The middle class here is quite big. During Hari Raya Aidil Adha, we even have trouble distributing meat,” said Mohamad Alfa, referring to the meat from animals ritually slaughtered during Aidil Adha and meant to be distributed among the poor.

Small town with high prices

But the middle class has had a tough time in the past three years.

“Tourists started spending less because their buying power has been reduced,” said crafts maker and seller Zaliha Mat Kasa, who experienced the drop in sales first hand.

“In the past I could make RM700 in a weekend. Now I make less than RM100,” said the 70-year-old who has been making labu sayong – an earthenware water flask – for the past 30 years.

Retirees in Kuala Kangsar, such as ex-businessman Ahmad Kareem, complained about the high price of fish and vegetables.

“I can’t understand why food is expensive in Kuala Kangsar. We are only 40 minutes from Kuala Sepetang,” he said, referring to a fishing village on the coast.

“But ikan kembung is RM18 per kilo and sardines are RM10 per kilo. It’s like the prices you pay in Ipoh.”

It’s this seething anger over the economy that Perak PH and Perak PAS leaders hope will translate into a rebellion against BN at the ballot box.

But the question is, which opposition party?

Craftmaker Zaliha said PAS had grown in influence among the town’s business folk.

“PAS is spreading its influence and becoming stronger. The 1MDB (1Malaysia Development Bhd) issue has also affected support among Umno members.”

But PH has not lagged behind in canvassing for support.

An April ceramah by PH chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad managed to pull in a crowd of about 2,000 people.

Perak PH leader Asmuni Awi believes that three-cornered fights could work in PH’s favour in Kuala Kangsar.

“We are targeting to get 80% of the non-Malay vote, and if we can get 40% of the Malay vote, we could win,” said Asmuni who heads Perak Amanah.

By Asmuni’s calculations, PH needs to keep the support level it has now in Kuala Kangsar and find another 7,600 votes.

And this could come from Umno members and supporters who are sick of the Najib administration and those in PAS who disagree with the party’s direction under president Abdul Hadi Awang.

PAS on the other hand, believes it can build on the 5,600 voters it had during the by-election, said PAS Perak commissioner Razman Zakaria.

“We did an internal audit and we know that less than 1% of our members left PAS to join PH,” said Razman.

Razman argues that PAS is better at attracting Umno members than PH, and these additional votes will carry the party to the finish line first.

“Our message is you need a coalition dominated by Malay-Muslims to ensure there is political stability in the country. PH is a coalition of splinter parties and they are not dominated by Malays.” – November 7, 2017.