SARAWAK Chief Minister Abang Johari Openg should not use Pakatan Harapan’s heavy defeat in the Tg Piai by-election as a yardstick to call for an early state election, said analysts.

Apart from general voter sentiment against PH’s broken election promises, there’s no correlation between Sarawak and the drubbing the coalition suffered in Tg Piai over the weekend, they said.

They, however, agreed that Abang Johari should call for early state elections instead of waiting for the end of its current term, which ends in May 2021.

In Saturday’s by-election, Barisan Nasional won back the seat it lost in the 14^th general election with a thumping majority of 15,086 votes.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) political pundit Lee Kuok Tiung said Abang Johari should see the state government’s term off first.

“Finish the term first. Don’t waste public money. Politics in the peninsula is different from Sarawak,” he said.

Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Awang Pawi also agreed the state polls should be held early.

Abang Johari should call for the state elections “after the Chinese New Year and before the fasting month in April” mainly for two reasons.

The first, he said, was the effect of the power handover from Dr Mahathir Mohamad to PKR president Anwar Ibrahim, and the second is the federal government’s attempt to bulldoze the formation of the MPKKP – village community management council – in the state.

Awang said while the accusations and counter-accusations for the Tg Piai defeat may have thrown the ruling coalition in some disarray which Abang Johari could consider taking advantage of, it is the uncertainty of what the political landscape would be after Anwar assumes the prime minister’s office that he should think about.

“So it’s better to do it now when he knows what the cards are rather than later when there would be so many uncertainties.”

But Awang said the biggest threat to the four-party Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) coalition’s hope of retaining power in the state is the January 1 implementation of the MPKKP.

“Abang Johari should not give Putrajaya the time for them to implement the council throughout the state.

“If the MPKKP is able to penetrate the rural areas, from north to south, then it will be difficult for GPS to stave off the challenge of PH.”

Pakatan’s popularity dropping

James Chin, University of Tasmania’s expert on Southeast Asian politics, also agreed that Abang Johari should go for an early election now that “PH is in a bad shape nationally” and with GPS’ “Sarawak first” campaign gaining traction.

“PH’s programme in Sarawak is not doing well,” he said, alluding to the reason for the push by Putrajaya to form the controversial MPKKP.

“Time is running out for them if GPS calls for the election next year.”

The analysts nonetheless all agreed that PH’s 2018 general election promises to increase Sarawak’s oil royalty from 5% to 20%, return 50% of all federal taxes collected in the state and complete autonomy to education and medical and health services, will come back to haunt the PH.

Lee said if the election is held today, several state leaders could lose their seats.

“Sarawakians are getting fed up with what these PH leaders say now, unless they start delivering their election pledges.

“I predict the worst is yet to come for DAP and PH. Their popularity keeps on dropping.”

Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) youth secretary-general Milton Foo believes if the Sarawak elections are called early, “PH would be decimated”.

“As long as PH does not fulfil its promises to Sarawak, the oil royalties, return of the taxes, Sarawakians won’t trust PH any more.

“The ground sentiment in urban areas, especially in the Chinese-majority constituencies towards DAP is terrible and it’s been never so bad before for the past 15 years.”

He foresees the state elections, which he believes will be held between September and June 2021, could be a good chance for SUPP to win back some seats

“If we put the right candidate.” – November 19, 2019.