EXPECT the annual general assembly of Parti Islam Semalaysia (PAS) to be anything but the pedestrian and event of little consequence it usually is.  

Party officials and political analysts believe that following next weekend’s meeting in Alor Star, Kedah, it will become clear that PAS will go it alone, instead of aligning itself with Umno or making an electoral pact with Pakatan Harapan (PH). 

A decision to go it alone could hurt it the most because its brand has traditionally had little goodwill among non-Malay voters. It only snared many seats in 2013 because its candidates contested the polls under the Pakatan Rakyat banner.

For the past few months, PAS with its strong core of Malay supporters has been wooed by both Umno and the opposition

PH leaders believe that an electoral pact with PAS will give the opposition coalition the Malay vote it needs to win about 30 more parliamentary seats for a slim majority in Parliament.

PH parties plus PAS currently hold 81 seats in the Dewan Rakyat. PH comprises PKR, DAP, Amanah and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.

On the flip side, Umno led by its president Najib Razak believes that an electoral pact with PAS will starve the opposition of the Malay vote it needs to form the next government.

Party insiders told The Malaysian Insight ‎they expected the Islamist party to promote the idea of a third opposition bloc called Gagasan Sejahtera. This will see it fielding candidates against both Barisan Nasional (BN) and PH in the next polls.

“Historically, whenever BN is faced with more than one opposition party, the votes going to the opposition will be split and BN will win,” said Merdeka Centre executive director Ibrahim Suffian.

This was shown in last year’s Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections, where BN was able to take advantage of the split votes going to PAS and another opposition party, Amanah.

Severing the last tie

The decision on PAS’s future alignment will be borne out through motions put to the assembly which will could likely take place on its last day of the meeting on May 1.

The first two days will be focused on the election of 18 new central committee members. Abdul Hadi Awang and Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man have been returned unopposed as the party president and deputy president, respectively.

Another closely watched event will be the election of three vice-presidents. The contestants are incumbents Mohamad Amar Abdullah, Iskandar Abdul Samad and Idris Ahmad. The fourth candidate is information chief Nasruddin Hassan.

Analyst Mohamad Hisomuddin Bakar of the Ilham Centre understands the expectations surrounding the muktamar of many who expect a surprise decision by the PAS leadership on who it will partner in GE14.

But he predicted that PAS would continue on its own and build up third opposition bloc, Gagasan Sejahtera.

PAS contested GE13 as part of Pakatan Rakyat, together with PKR and DAP. But its ties with Pakatan Rakyat collapsed after a series of disagreements with the DAP in 2015.

It still maintains political ties with PKR by virtue of PKR still being in the Selangor government. Party sources said these ties were vulnerable because the PAS rank and file felt that PKR had disrespected PAS by continuing to work with DAP and Amanah.

There is likely to be a motion at the assembly for the party to consider severing ties with the PKR. Several PAS divisions have been reported to say they would bring forward such a motion.

“Motions can either be accepted and debated, or accepted without debate, or rejected,” said PAS central committee member Mustafa Ali while refusing to comment on specific motions.

Motions are rarely rejected unless they clearly conflicted with the party constitution or with the Federal Constitution.

Although there has been speculation that a motion willbe tabled for PAS to cooperate with BN component party Umno, this was flatly denied by Mustafa.

“Our position on Umno is very clear. We will fight against Umno in the election,” Mustafa said.

Hisomuddin said that based on Ilham Centre surveys, PAS would lose from 20% to 30% of its members if it entered into a pact with Umno.

Still, some observers believe that much of what PAS leaders say in public is just posturing. The party continues to keep channels open with both Umno and PH.‎

PKR was prepared for any eventuality coming from this muktamar, said its vice-president Tian Chua.

“I do not want to pre-empt any of their decisions. We will observe the situation and hope that the wisdom of the leadership will guide delegates to preserve the unity with other opposition parties, ” he said. – April 23, 2017.