EVEN with their formalised pact, PAS and Umno are not aiming to wrest Selangor come the 15th general election – unless they are able to secure non-Malay support.

State PAS deputy commissioner Mohd Shafie Ngah told The Malaysian Insight that he estimates only about 3% of non-Malay/Muslim voters in Selangor back the opposition parties, which last weekend inked a unity charter.

“Our early surveys show that we do not have the support of non-Malays. Just a few of them. I don’t think it’s more than 3%.”

He said the state PAS will count on Umno’s non-Malay allies in Barisan Nasional, namely MCA and MIC, as well as the Islamist party’s non-Muslim supporters’ wing, to attract the segment.

Shafie, who is former Bangi assemblyman, said Malays in Selangor might not give their full support to the PAS-Umno pact, having voted for the now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat, and then, Pakatan Harapan, in the last three elections.

“Selangor has the advantage of having been ruled for three terms by (Pakatan Rakyat and) PH, and the state’s offerings, such as free bus services, are well-liked.

“Most Malays in the state are still happy with PH. We can hype up Malay unity and the unity of the ummah (Muslim community), but the thinking is different in Selangor,” he said of Malaysia’s richest and most cosmopolitan state.

“Malay voters here would want PH to continue leading Selangor. It’ll be a challenge for (the PAS-Umno) pact to face PH in this state.”

Selangor was not among the eight states that Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan had predicted the Malay parties’ union could win in GE15.

According to his forecast, the PH-ruled Malacca, Negri Sembilan, Perak and Kedah will fall in the next elections, with the possibility of Johor, Umno’s birthplace, as well. The states already under PAS or BN – Perlis, Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang – will be retained.

In Selangor, the only seat won by PAS in last year’s elections was the Sijangkang state constituency.

BN, meanwhile, only holds the Tanjung Kajang parliamentary seat, and the state seats of Sg Air Tawar, Sg Panjang, Hulu Bernam, Sg Burong and Semenyih.

Shafie said the PAS-Umno pact targets an additional 11 state and six parliamentary seats in Selangor in GE15, based on the total number of votes the parties got last year.

The parliamentary seats are Sabak Bernam, Sg Besar, Hulu Selangor, Kuala Selangor, Kapar and Kuala Langat. The state seats are Sabak, Permatang, Bukit Melawati, Ijok, Jeram, Kuang, Sementa, Selat Klang, Morib, Tanjung Sepat and Dengkil.

Candidates and seat allocations

Selangor Umno information chief Abdul Rahman Bakri, however, is more optimistic.

His view is based on the willingness of other BN components and their grassroots to cooperate when discussing seat allocations ahead of the next elections.

“If the grassroots are loyal, they will accept whoever is fielded as the candidate, and God willing, we can take back Selangor.”

State Bersatu treasurer Mohd Shaid Rosli said the matter of seat allocation will be the PAS-Umno pact’s first stumbling block.

He said the opposition parties will find it hard to give way to one another in the seats where they have traditionally stood as rivals.

“There are seats in Selangor that they could potentially win. The question is, which party will give way?”

Jeram, where Shaid is assemblyman, is an example. PAS and Umno have always faced off for control of the constituency in past elections.

Last year, Shaid contested for the first time, and won with a 1,000-vote majority.

“So, who is going to get the seat? This has to be settled first before they can start talking about toppling PH,” said the rep.

He also believes that the PAS and Umno grassroots are not fully convinced about the pact signed by party leaders, as their cooperation has yet to be tested.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang had said Kelantan and Terengganu, which are ruled by the Islamist outfit, were open to incorporating Umno representatives in their administrations.

The PAS-Umno charter does not state anything about seat allocations for elections, outlining only the principles of cooperation, rationale for the pact and structure of operations.

Shaid said to prove to the grassroots that the pact is viable, PAS and Umno should revamp the exco line-ups in the four states they control and form unity governments.

“This will show their grassroots whether they are a viable pact. As for seat allocations, they have to be brave enough to declare ‘this one is PAS’, this one is Umno’s’.

“Only then will we know if there is real cooperation, or if it will just end up in a fight.” – September 24, 2019.