THE use of sex scandals in politics has reared its ugly head in the run-up to the next general election, which could end up being just as dirty as the previous one in 2013.

The latest to be hit is Bersatu youth chief Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, who claims he is being blackmailed by certain individuals to leave Bersatu.

Syed Saddid alleges if he does not leave his party, the group will publicly release “sensitive photographs” that could damage his family.

Syed Saddiq’s predicament harkens back to the days running up to the 2013 general election, when a slew of graphic videos and pictures of opposition politicians were released.

But what is different is how much of an impact this type of dirt will have on voters who are more media savvy and more concerned with bread-and-butter issues, analysts and politicians say.

This was because Malaysians had been fed a steady diet of scandals – personal and financial – for the past two decades, since Anwar Ibrahim was sacked as deputy prime minister in 1998 and jailed, said analyst Ibrahim Suffian.

“It is part and parcel of the political landscape these days. If you are running for public office expect your opponents to use every weapon (they have) against you,” said Ibrahim of the Merdeka Center.

But no expose affected all politicians, parties and their voters the same way, said Rafizi Ramli, who had helped his party PKR, weather scandals in the run-up to the 2013 elections.

“It depends very much on where a politician and political party derive its moral legitimacy, and a scandal hits hardest when it is at the core of that legitimacy,” says Rafizi, who in 2013, was PKR’s strategic director.

But because voters want their politicians to have higher moral standards than the average person, a scandal does have an impact on a leader’s popularity, said analyst Hisomuddin Bakar.

“The impact depends on when the scandal is revealed and how the politician … defends himself or herself,” said Hisomuddin of the Ilham Centre.

It’s all about timing

In the run-up to the 2013 general election, salacious videos and pictures surfaced of individuals who looked similar to PKR politicians Anwar Ibrahim and Mohamed Azmin Ali, and PAS leader Mustafa Ali.

The three strenuously denied that they were the individuals depicted and claimed that it was part of a smear campaign to cripple the opposition’s momentum.

On Wednesday, Bersatu’s Syed Saddiq claimed that the blackmail threat against him was made a day after he revealed that he was offered RM5 million to leave his party.

These claims are occurring as Bersatu and its coalition Pakatan Harapan are making headway in their quest to wrest federal power from the ruling Barisan Nasional.

The 14th general election has to be called before August 2018, though pundits have said it could be done during the first quarter of next year.

Hisomuddin said scandals tend to have the most impact the later they were revealed, such as a week before ballots were cast.

“At that juncture, a politician and his party doesn’t have enough time to respond effectively.”

Although a scandal may not change the minds of voters who’ve already decided, it may sway fence-sitters,” said Hisomuddin.

Diminishing impact

The social media era has made distributing graphic material easier, but Merdeka Center’s Ibrahim said the public has become much more savvy about believing it.

“There is a diminishing ability of moral scandals to have an impact.”

He cites the example of 2014’s Teluk Intan by-election, when photos of DAP candidate Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud purportedly in a bikini were circulated.

“It was later revealed that it was actually a Filipino actress. So people tend to be more sceptical about these exposes and it blunts their effect.”

Also, voters tend to take into account many factors before deciding on whom to vote for, and a politician’s moral standing was often subordinate to leadership ability, said Ibrahim.

“Moral standing is a sub-factor along with vision, charisma and effectiveness. This is why we see leaders still winning despite the scandals implicating them.”

As a PKR leader, Rafizi has seen his share of dirt being thrown at the party and its leaders.

He said the key to dealing with and dishing out bombshells was knowing where a party derives its moral legitimacy, and what type of scandal would be the most damaging.

Equally important was how to tie the scandal to the impact it has on voters’ lives, said the Pandan MP.

“If you look at all the mud they smeared our leaders with, it did not reduce PKR’s support in 2013. We did not lose support because of this,” said Rafizi of the many pictures and videos that were circulated in the past.

“Because our moral legitimacy is derived from fighting corruption and advocating good governance, we would be more impacted by a corruption scandal compared to other parties.”

By the same token, as Umno projected itself as being a party of the Malay working class, it was vulnerable when its leaders were shown to misuse public money at a time when many people were suffering, said Rafizi.

“This is why the NFC (National Feedlot Corporation) scandal had an effect. Because it showed Umno leaders getting easy loans and misusing them,” said Rafizi.

“Also, if you concentrate too much on playing up scandals it could backfire when people are more concerned about bread-and-butter issues.” – October 6, 2017.