128. At best, that is the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition’s best forecast of seats it can win if the general election is called any time soon. The 14^th general election must be held by August 24, 2018. 

At worst, BN can win 122 seats, according to an internal analysis that was tabled at two retreats held in February and before Parliament met in March.

Both numbers are enough for BN to retain Putrajaya but many in the coalition are now trying to work out better numbers, as both forecasts are lower than the 132 seats it currently holds.

A breakdown of the forecasts show BN is still confident of winning 50 federal seats in its “bank deposit” states of Sabah and Sarawak. It now holds 46 out of the 56 federal seats in both Borneo states.

The Malaysian Insight understands the numbers were crunched with data that included feedback about hot-button issues, such as the RUU355 shariah law amendments and the current bearish economic conditions.

“The numbers don’t look good but the party boffins are being realistic,” a coalition strategist told The Malaysian Insight, confirming the numbers were a wake-up call for BN.

“We need to manage issues better and I think we can get there,” he added.

BN strategists said the economic recovery and a slew of financial strategies would help the coalition win over new voters while it was working on other issues that would cost it further in the ballot box.

BN lost the popular vote in the 2013 elections to the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, which then included PAS, as a deluge in new voters expressed their preference for the opposition.

Despite winning the popular vote, it was not enough for PR to win more seats in the 222-seat Parliament. The opposition pact has since broken up over PAS’s insistence on introducing tougher Islamic laws, including the RUU355 amendments.

BN had said it would take over the RUU355 amendments from PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang several weeks ago but dropped it at the last minute after Sabah and Sarawak BN lawmakers objected to the government tabling.

Hadi tabled the private member’s bill on the last day of the past parliamentary sitting last week but debate was suspended when the Dewan Rakyat Speaker Pandikar Amin Mulia adjourned the sitting.

The RUU355 amendments were expected to cause divisions and were seen as an issue that would lose BN its non-Muslim vote, leading to speculation that the dominant party, Umno, was working with PAS on securing the Muslim vote to keep power.

However, Umno has insisted together with PAS that the amendments were just to enhance the shariah legal system and not a vote-getter in the next general election.

PAS has grown closer to Umno on several Muslim causes but insists there is no pact between both rival parties. – April 10, 2017.