THE Western anti-palm oil campaign has now shifted into the realm of biofuels. Biofuels such as biodiesel and bioethanol serve as renewable alternatives to fossil fuels for the European Union in the transport sector. Biofuels help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EU aims to have 10% of transport fuels come from renewable sources such as biofuels by 2020.

Activists against palm oil are now saying that palm oil biofuel emits more greenhouse gas than fossil fuels. Under pressure from lobbyists, the EU has classified palm oil biodiesel as “high risk” based on the effect of indirect land use change (ILUC).

The EU Renewable Energy Directive defines ILUC as the use of existing cropland for biofuel feedstock production, forcing food, feed and materials to be produced on new cropland elsewhere. Thus, additional demand and extension of agricultural land into areas with high carbon stock such as forest, wetlands, and peatland cause additional greenhouse gas emissions.

Anti-palm oil activists are capitalising on a study by Valin et al (2015) – “The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU: Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts”, also known as the Globiom Report. The report compared all biofuels used in the EU and concluded that palm oil biodiesel has the highest emission intensity, with 231 gCO2/MJ (grams of carbon dioxide released per megajoule of energy produced); compared with the next highest, soybean oil biodiesel, with 150 gCO2/MJ.

The methodology used in the study by Valin and his colleagues was modeling to quantify emissions. They made an impressive attempt to quantify carbon emissions through the land use change effect. But the ILUC effect could not be measured, which the researchers themselves acknowledged, and that was the main weakness of the study.

Using conceptual modeling is an accepted method in scientific studies. Foremost, the goals of the model must be clearly set. Next is to define the system, draw the boundaries, and then determine the key variables. Although those were fairly clearly stated and explained, there were times in the report the line between direct and indirect land use became blurred and confusing.

The researchers stated in the outset that the study was mainly on biofuels used and their emissions in the EU. How the study was done on palm oil biofuel and its comparison with the temperate biofuel is not clear, bearing in mind the boundaries and variables, and the relationships between those variables need to be well-explained.

Methods to calculate greenhouse gas emission cannot be the same for different crops. Variables for each type of crop are too many and difficult to control, such as geographical region, fertilizer and pesticides used, land tilling, transportation, and so on. The lifespan of a crop has vast impact on how the land is used. Oil palm has a lifespan of over 30 years, while soybean has a very short lifespan of merely one planting and fruiting.

Therefore with such vast variables, the methodology for a proper comparative study on land use change effect is quite impossible. There are too many areas of uncertainty. The study of Valin and colleagues lacks scientific certainty and validity.

The EU has made a big blunder in labeling palm oil diesel as “high ILUC risk” based on the findings of the Globiom Report with regards to palm oil biodiesel emission. The authors of the report used “land use change”, which is in fact the sum of direct and indirect land use change emission effects, whereas the ILUC high risk label is meant to imply the usage of existing cultivated land and force-fed cultivation elsewhere to cause more greenhouse gas emission.

In Malaysia, oil palm is mostly planted on vast tracts of secondary forest and unused cropland. Palm oil may be used in feedstock. But fruits are not feedstock. Animal husbandry is not a big industry in the country, as compared to Western countries where cattle rearing is a huge industry. The new rules of EU state that biofuels should come from feedstock that is not in competition with food crops. Unlike soybean and corn, oil palm cultivation is not in competition with any food crop. – March 28, 2019.

* Captain Dr Wong Ang Peng is a researcher with an interest in economics, politics, and health issues. He has a burning desire to do anything within his means to promote national harmony. Captain Wong is also a member of the National Patriots Association.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.