NO clear winner has emerged as the Semenyih by-election campaign period reaches its midway point, with the two main competing pacts working overtime to ensure supporters turn out to vote.

A study by Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) gave the ruling Pakatan Harapan a slight lead before campaigning began, but that edge is being challenged as voters complain about persistently high living costs, such as the 10 sen rise in petrol.

Activists from both PH and Barisan Nasional said their main concern is voter turnout, as the by-election is deemed insignificant given that it will not change the power equation in Selangor, much less the federal government.

IDE senior analyst Dr Kamarul Bahrin Zahid said the lack of excitement over the Semenyih polls can be seen in the muted “flag war” and small crowds at campaign events.

BN is hoping to buttress the more than 14,400 votes it got in the 14th general election with votes from backers of Islamist party PAS, which received about 6,900.

BN activists told The Malaysian Insight that they hope a silent protest against PH by the constituency’s civil servants and youth over unfulfilled election promises and cost-of-living pressures will give the former ruling pact the extra 2,000 votes it needs to clinch victory.

In GE14, PH got 23,428 votes in a four-way fight. If PAS and BN maintain the same support as in last year’s elections and pool their votes, they would still need another 2,000 votes to defeat PH.

The ruling coalition is banking on its strong service record in the Selangor government and a continued sense of good faith from middle-class voters towards the young federal administration.

“It’s still a tough by-election and there is no clear-cut winner, even though PH started off with a slight lead. But PH is facing criticism because of the high cost of living, especially after petrol went up 10 sen. This is stoking anger on social media,” said Kamarul Bahrin.

“The campaign fever on both sides is also missing. However, it remains essentially a PH v BN contest, even with the presence of Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) and an independent.”

The state seat, which is near the Negri Sembilan border, has 53,257 voters. Malays make up 68%, followed by Chinese (17%), Indians (14%) and Orang Asli (1%).

Muhammad Aiman Zainali is defending the seat for PH against BN’s Zakaria Hanafi, Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul (PSM) and Kuan Chee Heng (independent).

Giving PH a chance

Hulu Langat Umno grassroots leader Shamsul Zainuddin is confident that BN, with PAS’ support, can trounce PH, so long as all supporters turn out on March 2.

“That is the main issue,” he said when asked about the main challenges of campaigning in the Kantan Permai polling district, which has the third-largest number of voters among Semenyih’s 23 electoral localities.

“We have issues that we can play up, and (PAS and Umno) members are working well, but we need to get all our supporters to come out and vote.”

Neighbouring the old Malay settlement of Sg Kantan in Kajang, Kantan Permai’s voting population is 95% Malay-Muslim. Most of them are either retired or active civil servants working in Putrajaya, and at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Universiti Tenaga Nasional.

In Semenyih’s second-biggest polling district, Bukit Mahkota, Zainal Mohd Hassan of PKR said most of the voters he has met said they are still willing to give PH a chance despite criticism that the coalition has not fulfilled its election pledges.

Bukit Mahkota voters do not see the polls as a mere state by-election, but a referendum on whether they are satisfied with PH as a whole, he said.

“They say if you give birth to a child after nine months, you really cannot expect much from it. It’s only after about four years that their personality emerges. It’s the same with PH, which is still finding its way,” said Zainal in Bandar Seri Putra, which forms half of Bukit Mahkota.

Selangor Amanah committee member Khairul Annuar Zit said feedback from the three polling districts that the party is in charge of for PH – Bukit Mahkota, Kantai Permai and Taman Kesuma – is that residents will back the coalition.

“The response to our programmes may not be big, but we have voters who come up and ask ministers about current issues. There is good engagement with the public,” he said, adding that Malays in the three areas are politically mature and not easily taken in by empty rhetoric.

“In the urban and suburban areas, we think we’ll be okay. The more rural parts of Semenyih are what we are worried about,” he said, referring to Hulu Semenyih, Sg Kembung, Sasapan Kelubi and Sasapan Batu Rembau, where PH fared poorly in GE14. – February 24, 2019.