THOUGH it will not change the power equation at either the state or federal government level, the Semenyih by-election will be a gauge of public sentiment towards Pakatan Harapan as the coalition nears its first anniversary of being in power.

The country’s opposition parties, mainly Umno and PAS, are also seeing the by-election as a chance to further prove that their revival is gaining momentum after their recent win in the Cameron Highlands by-election.

If Umno and PAS win Semenyih by pooling their support, it will prove that both parties are able to move beyond their traditional rural, working-class base to attract urban middle-class Malay Muslims.

A Semenyih victory will also prove that the new Umno-PAS alliance stands a good chance of defeating PH and taking over Putrajaya in the 15th general election.

The polls will also be a test for PAS – now the second largest opposition party – on whether it can maintain grassroots support after a civil suit settlement sparked allegations that the Islamist party took RM90 million from Umno before the 14th general election.

Political analyst Prof Dr Redzuan Othman said the by-election would be a matter of pride for all parties involved.

“PH’s component party Bersatu is the youngest in the coalition. It needs to prove that it can defend the seat. It will face its first by-election since GE14.

“Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Saari also wants to prove that he can perform a double hat-trick by defending Semenyih,” said Redzuan, who is also deputy chairman of Selangor-based think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE).

Since becoming menteri besar, Amirudin has helped PH win the Sg Kandis, Seri Setia and Balakong by-elections.

PAS-Umno conversion

As it stands, PH has near total control of the Selangor assembly, where it holds 51 of 56 state seats – the highest number since it took over after GE12 in 2008. The loss of Semenyih will not affect the state administration’s ability to pass new laws or govern in any way.

According to an IDE study, PH has a slight advantage in retaining Semenyih, despite the fact that it will face two opposition candidates.

In GE14, PH faced the same two parties – Umno and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) – and was still able to win with a 8,964-vote majority.

As of yesterday, PH, Umno, PSM and one independent candidate have announced that they will contest in the 53,257-vote, Malay-majority seat.

Umno, said Redzuan, is especially emboldened after managing to snap PH’s winning streak in the Cameron Highlands parliamentary by-election on January 27.

Before Cameron Highlands, PH had won all four by-elections following GE14 in Sg Kandis, Seri Setia, Balakong and Port Dickson.

Umno had declared that the Cameron Highlands’ victory was the start of the Malay nationalist party’s revival after it was ousted from Putrajaya in GE14 and lost 14 MPs and a clutch of state leaders and members.

PH strategist Dr Ong Kian Ming had said that in Cameron Highlands, Umno was able to convert almost all of the votes PAS received in GE14 to itself to win the seat with a 3,238-vote majority.

To win Semenyih, Umno needs all of the 14,464 votes it garnered and the 6,966 votes that went to PAS in GE14. That would give it 21,460 votes, compared with 23,428 votes PH received in GE14. On top of that, it needs to secure more than 1,000 votes that had gone to either PH or PSM.

But a PH source said unlike PAS voters in Cameron Highlands, who were mainly rural folk, Semenyih’s PAS supporters are urban, middle-class Malays who are more politically conscious.

It is uncertain whether the Islamist party can count on them now that there are renewed allegations that it took money from Umno.

Meanwhile, an archilles heel for PH in Semenyih is the government’s management of the economy and its inability to control cost of living increases, a promise it banked on to win GE14. IDE’s own survey showed that these were the top two issues for voters.

The by-election in Selangor will also be different from the first three by-elections in the state, as these were held only a few months after PH took over Putrajaya, while feel-good sentiments towards the coalition was still high, said Redzuan.

The Semenyih polls are being held nine months after GE14, at a time when PH has been accused of reneging on some of its electoral promises. – February 16, 2019.