THE good vibes from a successful 2017 Sea Games campaign will not be enough to give Barisan Nasional an edge in a general election, said analysts.

They believe that BN chairman Prime Minister Najib Razak is more likely to call for elections after the October parliament session when the 2018 national budget and the new electoral boundary amendments will be tabled.

Their assessment comes as speculation intensifies that Najib may call for polls this year to tap into a surge of patriotism from Malaysia’s dominant show at the regional games and the 60th independence celebration.

An impressive showing at the Sea Games and the Opposition’s current fragmentation are two factors that could help the BN. But they are not enough to divert attention from issues such as inflation, stagnant wages and youth unemployment.

“The surge in patriotism may indeed occur,” said analyst Hisomuddin Bakar of the Ilham Centre.

“But it isn’t enough to give an oomph or create a wow factor that can win over voters. Because even if you get a huge medal tally, people will still ask, what’s in it for me?”

Malaysia is currently leading the medals tally among 11 Southeast Asian nations with 23 gold medal, 19 silver and 15 bronze. Its closest rival is Singapore With 12 gold, 12 silver and 11 bronze medals.

With nine more days to go until the closing ceremony on August 30, the country is expected to emerge as overall champs in the 29th edition of the games.

The Malaysian team’s commanding performance has seen local fans pack almost every venue in the Klang valley area that is hosting the games.

Sports Minister and BN Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin did not discount the possibility that polls may be called soon after the games.

Bigger factors

The whole idea that a positive vibe from a national sports event could translate into more support for a ruling government was more relevant in the period before the 80s, said independent pollster Ibrahim
Suffian.

The old Soviet Union, for instance, was adept at using sports and their athletes exceptional performance in the Olympics to generate a positive mood towards the authoritarian government, he said.

“Before the 80s there was no Internet, so everyone would tune into the big, government-provided  spectacle. Nowadays you are spoilt for choice,” said Ibrahim of the Merdeka Center.

“These days I do not think that sports can change people’s political choices.”

Today’s more politically savvy electorate are likely to look past the feel-good vibes of the Sea Games and demand more concrete answers to their day-to-day problems, said Hisomuddin of the Ilham Centre.

A bigger factor than the SEA Games, which the BN is likelier to use, is the 2018 national budget where a whole slew of goodies, promises and incentives are expected to be announced, said Hisomuddin.

“More BR1M (Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia), bonuses for civil servants and subsidies for fishermen will create a bigger wow factor than how many gold medals we pull in,” said Hisomuddin.

The last parliamentary session, said Dr Wong Chin Huat of the Penang Institute, will also be a chance for the BN to table and pass its latest constituency redelineation exercise.

The changes to the boundaries of all parliamentary and state seats in the country have been roundly criticised by electoral reform groups and the Opposition as being lopsided.

If passed, the new boundaries will give the BN and its lynchpin party Umno, an advantage in the election through skewed voter populations, said Wong.

“Ultimately I think Najib may want to have new constituencies to be used so Umno may have more Malay seats to contest,” said Wong, who heads the Institute’s political and social research division.

“Also, new constituencies may change the ethnic composition and make seat negotiations for the Opposition harder.” – August 22, 2017.