AFTER two weeks of campaigning, the only real challenger to Anwar Ibrahim in tomorrow’s Port Dickson by-election is former Negri Sembilan menteri besar Isa Samad, said pollster Ilham Centre.

Port Dickson, previously known as Teluk Kemang, is homeground for Isa, who left Umno to contest as an independent to challenge Anwar, the incoming PKR president and intended successor to prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

“He evidently still commands influence in the state seats of Bagan Pinang and Linggi,” said Ilham Centre executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal of Isa’s homeground advantage.

“Family influence, sentimental personal relations between Isa and the voters, and the political element of paying back are strong in these two seats.

“A majority of the people we surveyed, namely senior citizens and Umno veterans, agree that Isa had done a lot for the people and the development of these areas when he was the Bagan Pinang assemblyman and menteri besar,” said Azlan.

Ilham Centre had polled 817 voters from various segments, groups and areas in the parliamentary seat from Monday to yesterday.

Isa, 68, represented Bagan Pinang from 2009 to 2013. Before that, he was the Linggi representative from 1978 to 2004.

He was menteri besar of the state from 1982 to 2004.

But while he may be popular with Malay voters, Azlan said Isa will not be able to sway Chinese and Indian voters.

“They will still reject candidates not from Pakatan Harapan. All non-PH candidates either struggled or gave up on the non-Malay votes,” he said.

Port Dickson’s 75,770 registered voters are 43% Malay, 33% Chinese and 22% Indian.

Azlan said Isa would also unlikely appeal to younger voters and members from his former party.

“Those under 40 don’t feel sentimental about Isa like the older generation. Umno youths seem to have lost their direction this time.

“Isa and his Felda scandal also ruined his image for many young voters,” he said, referring to allegations of power abuse and corruption in Felda when Isa was chairman.

Apart from Isa and Anwar, the other candidates are PAS’ Mohd Nazari Mokhtar, and independents Saiful Bukhari Mohd Azlan, Stevie Chan, Lau Seck Yan and Kan Chee Yuen.

Losing deposit

Azlan said PAS’ local machinery was “crippled”, and that Nazari may even lose his deposit tomorrow.

He said the Islamist party had focused solely on the Malay segment, especially Umno voters who may look to PAS as the alternative to their own party in terms of defending Malays and Islam.

“PAS knows it cannot compete with Anwar. So their main focus is to retain the votes they had won in the 14th general election to be Anwar’s closest challenger.

“PAS had hoped for a straight fight with Umno staying out, but Isa entered the contest and ruined the Islamist party’s strategy.

“So far, the party has failed to win enough support from Malay voters. With Isa in, the PAS candidate is only in third place and faces a high possibility of losing his deposit,” said Azlan.

Azlan said the other independent candidates will likely also lose their deposits, as it will be hard for them to even get 2% of the votes tomorrow.

He said Saiful Bukhari, who had accused his former boss Anwar of sodomising him in 2008, was only in the race to “haunt” the PKR leader.

“His campaign has been about his sodomy issue and nothing else. He can’t compete with the other three candidates.

“His presence is to get some Malay votes, out of sympathy for his personal past with Anwar, while having nothing to offer.” – AFP, October 12, 2018.