MCA will be the biggest loser in Johor in the next elections, losing three out of the four parliamentary seats in the state, analysts said.

The second-largest component party in Barisan Nasional is only likely to retain Ayer Hitam currently held by its deputy, Wee Ka Siong.

“In Johor, MCA seats are the most at risk,” Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar told The Malaysian Insight.

Similar to Selangor, Johor has many mixed seats. Based on 2015 statistics, Johor has 55% Malay, Chinese (30%), Indian (6.5%) and others (8%).

If DAP fields its star candidates, such as Liew Chin Tong, Teo Nie Ching and Wong Shu Qi, in southern and central Johor, MCA is at risk of being wiped out.

He said: “80% of the Chinese voters are pro-opposition. If DAP puts out strong candidates, it will win big.”

Apart from Ayer Hitam, MCA currently holds Labis, Tanjung Piai and Tebrau.

Deputy International Trade and Industry Minister Chua Tee Yong is the Labis MP while Wee Jeck Seng represents Tanjung Pias and Khoo Soo Siang, who is retiring, Tebrau.

Adding to MCA woes, Hisommudin said, are youth voters, who are also pro-opposition.

“Almost 40% of the voters in the state are youth, they are pro-change and will not vote BN.”

However, Hisommudin and another political analyst Dr Phoon Wing Keong disagreed with PKR think-tank Invoke’s prediction that Pakatan Harapan will win more parliamentary and state seats than BN.

Invoke said PH will win 16 federal seats and 29 state seats while BN will win 11 federal seats and 27 state seats.

Phoon said Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin and Dr Mahathir Mohamad will attract some Malay voters towards PH but it is unlikely to be sufficient for the coalition to win Johor.

Johor Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar’s displeasure with Dr Mahathir over his criticism of Chinese investments in the state has turned some voters against PH, he said.

When asked about PAS’ spoiler effect, Phoon said, it would be negligible because of the Islamist party’s weak foothold in Johor.

Hisommudin concurred with Phoon’s assessment. “PH will perform better in the (next) elections, but it will be very difficult for them to take over Johor.”

He said this is also because 21 out of the 37 seats BN holds in the 56-seat state assembly are Felda settlements, usually a BN fixed deposit.

PH will need a vote swing of between 30% and 35% to win over most Felda seats. Only Gambir and Felda Tenang are likely to shift to PH based on current sentiments on the ground, he added.

“It will be difficult. Most of the settlers want status quo.”

Unlike Malays in urban and semi-urban areas, Felda settlers are shielded from the impact of rising cost of living and a weakened ringgit, he said. – March 15, 2018.