DESPITE Umno in its recent extraordinary general meeting having amended its constitution to allow for the postponement of its election until six months after a general election (GE), an Umno election should still be held the soonest possible to give Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob a go at party presidency so that both the positions of PM and Umno president are held by him.

Only this can ascertain, once and for all, who or which faction has the support of the Umno grassroots. Anyway, vesting the positions of PM and Umno president in one person had always been the case in the past when Umno was in power.

By right, when Umno helms the government, the PM should be Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as he is the president of Umno. But because he is tainted with corruption charges, and his trial is ongoing, he himself knows that he can’t be the PM of the country until he is cleared of the charges.

Moreover, Umno/Barisan Nasional (BN) with just 42 seats in Parliament, cannot helm the government without the support of Perikatan Nasional (PN) – Bersatu, PAS, Gerakan and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) – and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).

And PN has made it conditional that it will only support an Umno PM that is free from criminal charges.

That should make Mohamad Hasan, also known as Tok Mat, next in line to assume the leadership in his capacity as a deputy president of Umno. But Tok Mat is destined not to be the PM, as he is not an elected MP. The Federal Constitution specifies that the PM must be a member of the Dewan Rakyat.

And that was how the person next in line after Tok Mat, Ismail, got to be PM, being the vice-president of Umno and having the most number of votes in 2018. Besides, he is the only one in Umno other than Zahid who has had the experience of being a deputy PM.

Being the PM, Ismail is the head of the government and as such, he outranks Zahid who is merely the head of a political party.

This is also reflected in the Yang Amat Berhormat (YAB) or Right Honourable salutation reserved for the PM, DPM and menteri besar, as opposed to Zahid’s salutation as Yang Berhormat (YB) or Honourable as an MP.

So decorum for the PM must be observed, especially by the court cluster, in that the PM should not be pressured publicly and openly on a matter that he disagrees, particularly when it has not even been discussed by the top five in Umno.

Since Umno helming the government is also dependent on the support of the other coalition partners, it is not enough just to discuss it within Umno and BN, but also with the heads of all the coalition partners and the cabinet.

This is what consultation (musyawarah) is all about, especially when the day Umno holding power on its own not requiring consultation with others was long over, after its humiliating loss to Pakatan Harapan (PH) in GE14.

Moreover, there is a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Transformation and Political Stability signed with PH that pledged to avoid triggering a general election prematurely.

As a result, the country has achieved political stability in the last 10 months, which have seen both the government and the opposition having played their part of the bargain to ensure political stability for the country, otherwise we would have witnessed another change in government and PM.

Is the court cluster a group of people who does not see the sanctity of an agreement when they insist the PM to call for a snap election? As an MOU is indeed a form of agreement, this does not bode well if the court cluster helms the government because of their Machiavellian view towards agreement.

They will only fulfil an agreement so long as the situation is not favourable to them without the agreement, such as when they agreed to join the PN government under Muhyiddin Yassin.

The moment the situation is favourable to them in not observing the agreement, such as now when they perceive Umno on its own will win BIG in a snap election, they would stoop low to chuck any agreement that restricts their wishes without even waiting for it to expire.

This will result in a trust deficit for Umno, arising from an ethical breach of trust in agreement. In light of their tendency to view agreement as not ethically binding, it is fair to ask if GE15 is held, will Ismail be Umno/BN’s choice as PM, as agreed to by Zahid in the last Umno assembly?

Hence, the importance of the PM not to put too much hope on Zahid’s promise that Ismail will be BN’s poster boy (PM) in GE15.

It is in this context that it is very crucial for an Umno election to be held first before a snap general election is called to give Ismail the chance to be both the PM and Umno president.

If the court cluster refuses to allow this, then they should not be allowed to pressure the PM to hold a snap election. After all, an Umno president is very powerful as his signature is required for any Umno member to contest in GE15.

If Zahid decides not to sign on the candidacy of all Umno members in the minister cluster as a political revenge, it will mark the end of their political careers as MPs and ministers.

Already he has turned his back on his promise not to call for a snap election while the MOU with PH is still on. There should be no mention at all in the open of a snap election going by his promise until at least August because the expiry date of the MOU is end-July.

And even then, the MOU can be extended beyond July if both the government and the opposition agree. Of course, Ismail as the vice-president of Umno and the head of government will need to discuss it with Umno, BN, the heads of coalition partners and the cabinet before agreeing to it.

Just like the decision on calling for a snap election finally rests on Ismail’s shoulders after discussion with the relevant parties, the decision to extend the memorandum with the opposition will also fall on his shoulders after he has done the needful in consulting the relevant parties.

I mentioned above about the possibility of a change in government and PM without the MOU with the opposition. Malaysia has already experienced political instability in having three prime ministers within two years, which in turn has affected economic stability.

It is indeed a blessing that the MOU has prevented a change in government because it will just take only two or three Umno MPs to withdraw support for Ismail for the current government to collapse, just like what Muhyiddin experienced due to the chicanery of the court cluster.

If the call for a snap election by the court cluster is entertained by the PM, there could be a fourth PM (within three years) in the event the Yang di-Pertuan Agong does not give his assent to the dissolution of Parliament, as Ismail would have to resign and become a caretaker PM while the Agong decides on who would be the new fourth PM within three years.

History will repeat itself then when we will see 220 MPs marching in batches again to the Istana for a third time to see the Agong to tell him who their preferred PM would be.

That would then make Malaysia the only country in Southeast Asia, perhaps the whole of Asia, with four PMs within three years! – June 12, 2022.

* Jamari Mohtar reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.