FIVE years ago, Lim Kit Siang registered arguably the biggest shock of GE13 when he sent Johor menteri besar Abdul Ghani Othman packing in Gelang Patah.

That victory marked the end of Ghani’s involvement in politics.

Surveys and anecdotal evidence suggest that Lim stands a good chance of retaining the seat, with traction on the ground still strong for the opposition. The worst-case scenario would be his winning majority being reduced.

But Barisan Nasional believes that the conditions are ripe for an upset for the following reasons:

* Some additional 5,000 to 6,000 of Malay voters have been injected into the constituency, changing its composition from a Chinese-majority seat to a mixed one. 

* Add to that mix an up-and-coming MCA leader, who has embarked on an aggressive campaign centring on his service record.

Universtiti Malaya Academy of Malay Studies Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said 70% of the new voters in Gelang Patah are Malays.

“The additional voters have lowered the percentage of Chinese voters by 2-4 percentage points. While I’m not expecting Lim to lose because of this alone, his margin will be reduced.”

At GE13, Lim defeated Ghani by 14,762 votes. Lim picked up 54,284 votes to Ghani’s 39,522 in the 52% Chinese, 33% Malay and 10% Indian seat.

Awang Azman said Gelang Patah’s return to MCA and challenger Jason Teoh will also put additional pressure on Lim to retain the seat.

During a survey of the state last year, Awang Azman said Teoh’s was a recognisable name among many Gelang Patah voters.

A formidable opponent

Teoh is banking on his service record to win the seat.

Born and bred in Gelang Patah, Teoh told The Malaysian Insight, another factor in his favour is voters’ preference for candidates rather than party.

“I have put in 11 paid staff members to attend to voters’ issues since 2014. They try to handle all the voters’ issues and based on this, I’m confident that MCA stands a better chance of putting up a better fight,” said the MCA Public Services and Complaints Bureau chief.

In an effort to make himself more personable to voters, Teoh released a four-minute video clip on YouTube earlier this year entitled “Jason Teoh’s suffering”.

In the video, Teoh showed how he “suffered” when he was told that the Gelang Patah seat would be contested by Ghani instead of him.

“I also thought that it was a good way for people to get to know me better. It garnered more than 30,000 views on my Facebook page within 24 hours of its release,” said Teoh.

He is confident that voters would appreciate steps taken by the BN state government to alleviate issues related to the rising cost of living.

“The cost of living is a problem here as there has been rapid development. But the state government is trying to address this by promising to build more affordable housing and the setting up of a local council foundation to channel aid to lower-income groups,” said the 49-year-old.

Teoh is also banking on Chinese support returning to MCA.

“We believe that there was a Chinese tsunami in GE13 where many Chinese returned to vote for the opposition. I don’t think those sentiments are there now. Without that, there should be a swing back to BN,” said Teoh at his factory in Skudai.

Reform in the air

Still, no matter how confident Teoh sounds, some of it comes across as bombast. A recent survey seen by TMI shows that support for BN in Johor is lower than five years ago.

And this sentiment has little to do with the performance of the state government but was a function of voter anger against the BN national leadership.  

The fact is that Gelang Patah voters are like their counterparts in other urban centres, such as Ipoh, Alor Star and Seremban, where national issues resonate.

Norlaili Aziz, 49, said she was firmly behind the opposition as she had grown tired reading about the scandals plaguing Prime Minister Najib Razak’s administration.

“The cost of living, Felda and corruption issues have come to a head now. Even my relatives in Kota Tinggi Felda areas are beginning to grow tired of BN,” said Norlaili, who attended Lim’s comeback ceramah on Saturday with her husband and son.

Her 21-year-old son Irfan, who just registered to vote, said he agreed with Pakatan Harapan’s assertions that the country has gone from bad to worse.

“My friends also dislike BN for its scandals. But yet at the same time, they are concerned that Malay rights will be lost if they voted for the opposition. I am ready to let PH try to reform the country,” said the student.

Self-employed Lee, who came from Muar for the ceramah in Gelang Patah, said Lim is a strong candidate because of national issues.

“I don’t think voters here care much for his constituency services. If he can change the country, the problems will disappear,” said the 52-year-old.

Another Gelang Patah voter, who only wanted to be known as Lai, said he normally scrutinises a candidate’s track record before voting.

“But this is not the time to look at constituency work alone. Now is the time to change the government. After a change in government, we will figure out how to reform the country,” said the 49-year-old businessman.

So, unless there is a seismic change on the ground between now and polling day, Gelang Patah looks safe in Lim’s hands. The best Teoh can hope for is to make a dent in the DAP’s man majority. – February 5, 2018.