BARISAN Nasional is confident that it can retain the Ayer Hitam parliamentary seat in Johor in the 14th general election despite a reduced majority in each of the last three successive elections.

BN has never once lost the seat and voters there attest to the ruling government’s track record in serving their needs.

And there is more reason to be confident this time, with DAP’s plan to let an Amanah candidate contest the seat under the largely Chinese party’s banner.

The incumbent, MCA deputy president Dr Wee Ka Siong, may have seen a drop in his majority from 15,763 votes in the 2004 general election to 7,310 votes in the 2013 polls.

But the lead Chinese party in the ruling BN coalition is confident of retaining the seat, even in a three-cornered fight against Pakatan Harapan’s Amanah and PAS.

Amanah is a PAS splinter party and was formed after the latter cut ties with allies in the former opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat.

BN’s Ayer Hitam election machinery head, Samsol Bari Jamali, said voters here have come to recognise the service provided by the ruling coalition.

“Voters here have seen that the development the government provides is all for the people.

“Based on our track record and service, we know the people realise that BN’s representatives are not seasonal.

“Whereas, the opposition are the ones who are seasonal. They only emerge when elections are coming,” said Samsol, who is also the Semarang assemblyman and Umno Ayer Hitam division chief.

Semarang and Yong Peng are the two state seats under the Ayer Hitam parliamentary constituency. Electoral data for the federal seat in 2013 put Malay voters at 56%, Chinese (38%) and Indians (4%).

Ayer Hitam is thus classified as a mixed seat although Malays form the largest group of voters. It was for this reason that DAP is letting an Amanah candidate stand in the seat under its banner as part of PH’s seat divisions that were finalised last weekend.

DAP’s move is also part of a strategy to take down MCA in Ayer Hitam, on the premise that Wee can lose the seat if at least 15% of Malay voters here swing to the opposition candidate.

In exchange, DAP gave up the Alor Gajah and Tanjung Piai federal seats in Malacca and Johor respectively to Bersatu.

Samsol dismissed views that a Malay candidate from Amanah would cause problems for MCA and BN in Ayer Hitam.

“BN is ready to face any party in Ayer Hitam, whether in a two- or three-cornered fight.”

Ayer Hitam residents whom The Malaysian Insight met agreed that BN would be able to retain the seat in GE14 and were almost clueless when asked about PH’s plans to put an Amanah candidate in the seat under DAP.

“Even if you put a bottle of soy sauce to represent BN in Ayer Hitam, BN can win,” said Mohd Nasri Mamor, a 62-year-old trader. 

“(Like) the Semarang state seat, it has been a BN stronghold ever since. It is part of tradition here.”

Nasri, who admitted to being a PAS supporter, said Amanah had little traction in Ayer Hitam.

“Amanah doesn’t even cast a shadow here. I don’t see how any candidate from Amanah can win here. The party doesn’t even have an election machinery here.”

Factory worker Norizuan Muhammad Kasim, who votes in the Yong Peng state seat, also expressed his support for BN.

“Yong Peng is currently a DAP seat and we have not seen much change. I would support the BN because under DAP, we are less likely to see change in the area.”

The 34-year-old said Yong Peng residents wanted more development in the area.

“I have never seen Amanah here. I don’t even know who they are.”

Another Yong Peng voter, who wanted to be known only as See, said MCA and BN had worked hard for Ayer Hitam residents.

“I have long been supporting MCA and BN. BN managed to modernise Yong Peng town. We have water supply and good roads. BN also built Chinese schools for our children.

“It’s all for the future of our children. I don’t know what DAP has done here,” said 60-year-old See who has been an MCA member since he was 20.

DAP’s Yong Peng assemblyman, Chew Peck Choo, thinks retaining her seat is a 50-50 chance. 

“The economy is a burden to the people but BN is also sticking to its approach that money can buy everything.

“But in the town, when we meet people, we can see that there is support (for the opposition). We’ll see.”

While Chew is noncommittal about Yong Peng, she said Ayer Hitam as a federal seat would present a different scenario for PH.

PH can cause a surprise in there, she said, based on support for the opposition that has been growing since the 2008 general election.

That was the year of watershed elections when BN, for the first time, lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament, as well as control of five states.

“In Ayer Hitam, nothing is impossible. After the 2008 elections, we began to gain solid support. Now that we are contesting under one party, not just the old one, we have confidence.” – January 16, 2018.