AS we continue to struggle through the second movement control order (MCO 2.0), the government seems to be in a dilemma and appears unsure of what needs to be done at the end of the lockdown on February 18. 

Policy-drift, confusing statements and instructions that seem to be flip-flopping creates a growing sense of frustration among the rakyat.

To begin with, things were relatively clear. The basic premise of a lockdown as a tool to control the pandemic is that viruses don’t move but people do. The Covid-19 virus does not last more than four days out in the open and in human bodies, if it stops replicating, it will finally die within 10 days. 

Thus the solution appears to be a no-brainer – stop all movement of all people within 10 days to limit the transmission from one person to another. The virus in the open would be all dead and the virus in people, if the infected people have been identified and treated, will also all be dead. The pandemic would be over. Life would then be back to normal. Or stabilise into a new normal. A welcome state either way.

A related idea is the notion of “flattening the curve”, which is actually an economic theory not a medical fact. The aim is to spread out cases to keep them within the resource and management capacity of the healthcare system. From this perspective, lockdowns have failed here and around the world and the evidence is seen on a daily basis with cases continuing to accumulate.

At the start of this process the initial lockdown in March last year appeared to be a huge success. The daily new cases fell to single digits. The director-general of health was hailed as a hero. When the threat seemed to have subsided, the MCO moved into the CMCO (conditional MCO) and then the RMCO (recovery MCO). People were freer to travel and interact, albeit with the standard operating procedures (SOP) in place.  

Unfortunately, with the controls loosened, people became slack in adhering to the SOP and the by-election in Sabah seemed to be the starting point for the second Covid-19 wave, which appeared unstoppable. Cluster after cluster emerged. The number of new cases have now climbed up sharply and new records are created on a daily basis.

The government reacted by first putting three states into the MCO 2.0 mode. The number of states increased until all states in Malaysia are now put under the MCO, except Sarawak. The MCO 2.0 is not the same as the MCO 1.0 in March last year and most businesses are allowed to operate and people are allowed to travel to work.

Nonetheless the MCO 2.0 period has been prolonged to February 18, which will cost RM24.5 billion or 1.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). This is on top of MCO 1.0 which caused the economy to contract by 5.6% in 2020. The overall level of GDP is back to where it was in the middle of 2018 so the lockdowns have reversed 2.5 years of economic development in Malaysia.

Businesses are starting to complain. Subsidies are not enough. Many businesses have to be closed down and the case numbers do not show that the pandemic is going to slow down any time soon.

Social frustration is rising and patience is running thin. People want effective action to end this pandemic quickly. They want to be able to move and socialise freely. They want to be able to pick up their businesses again quickly. 

The government justifies its actions by saying it needs to balance saving lives now and saving livelihoods in the long run. Is the pain of a further short-term lockdown worse than the permanent loss of a loved one to Covid-19?

Of course, the answer is that we must put the safety of our loved ones first, but in the face of mounting evidence that lockdowns do not work, there is a growing consensus that we need to look for alternatives that protect them without destroying their future.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has stated that lockdowns should not be the main weapon in the battle against Covid-19 and in Malaysia there are many calls from various quarters to find alternatives.

Against this backdrop, the government needs to bite the bullet and make a decision either to impose a complete lockdown of say two weeks to finally end the transmission or to lift the MCO completely and find alternatives to combating the Covid-19 virus that do not make the economic costs even worse.

The strength of economic recovery depends on ending the MCO quickly. The government must now separate economic policy from health policy and recognise that you do not reduce mortality by locking down the economy indefinitely.

The mathematics seem straight forward. The prolonged economic limbo is costing a lot more than a two-week complete lockdown like the one in March last year. It will be a bitter pill to swallow but it is time for us to bite the bullet and just do it to put this pandemic to a check and even check-mate.

* Professor Geoffrey Williams and Dr Khairir Khalil are academics at the Malaysia University of Science and Technology in Kuala Lumpur. The views expressed here are their own.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.