UMNO’S no-contest move for its top two posts is to ensure the status quo remains and the leaders keep their jobs and avoid the fate of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who was forced to step down due to poor results in the general elections, political observers say.

Abdullah’s inability to read the electorate correctly ahead of the general election in 2008 (GE12) cost Barisan Nasional (BN) its two-thirds majority. It also cost him the Umno presidency a year later from an angry party, that included his predecessor Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Political analyst Hisommuddin Bakar said the motion to disallow contests for its top two posts ensures Prime Minister Najib Razak will not face the same predicament as his predecessor if Umno and BN performs badly at the polls.

“It will be much harder for the next person to challenge Najib now even if Umno and Barisan Nasional does badly (in the next election),” said Hisommuddin, who heads the Ilham Centre think tank.

“The party has passed this motion and a challenger would look very out of place if he tried to challenge the president, even if he fared poorly.”

In the 2013 polls, Najib increased Umno’s parliamentary seat tally to 88 from the 79 that Abdullah won, despite losing the popular vote for BN as a whole.

But if Umno fared worst than the 88 seats it won against a resurgent Pakatan Harapan led by Dr Mahathir, Najib could face similar pressures.

While on paper, it looks like vice-president Ahmad Zahid Hamid has now secured the deputy president’s post in the next party elections, it also makes it harder for him make a run for the presidency, said the Ilham Centre chief.

“Zahid is now boxed into the deputy president’s post. It will be very unpopular for him to challenge the president even if there are merits to his case later,” said Hisommuddin.

A united Umno ahead of GE14

By locking up the positions, Umno also wants to ensure there will be no repeat of the 2008 episode where the party was fraught with factions and opposing camps more interested in the upcoming party polls.

This was something Umno wanted to avoid, said Hisommuddin.

Yesterday’s motion, which was brought by the party’s Youth, Wanita and Puteri wings, has helped calmed down the opposing camps.

Zahid, who is now a vice-president, would be nominated to contest the empty deputy president’s post but he won’t have contenders.

There was an attempt to secure the career of vice-president Hishammuddin Hussein by including the special functions minister in the motion.

But in the end, the motion only named Najib and Zahid.

Umno secretary-general Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor said the motion only concerned the posts of president and deputy.

He did not comment on why the motion did not include the request to include Hishammuddin.

“The motion was essentially to stop any speculation in the party between members that could distract them from focusing on the general election,” said supreme council member Shahrir Samad.

Shahrir declined to say whether Umno’s machinery for the general election would be crippled if the party did not have such a motion.

“What is certain is that with this motion, the party will not be distracted,” he told The Malaysian Insight with a smile.

Other party sources said there was a risk that Umno’s grassroots members would be distracted by jockeying for the plum deputy president’s and three vice-presidents’ posts that would be open in the party elections.

Umno’s top leaders, including Najib, Zahid and Hishammuddin, had warned members to focus on the national polls, which the president had dubbed “the mother of all elections”.

A source said an open deputy president’s post, which usually determines who becomes the country’s deputy prime minister in a Umno-led government, was too tempting for two of the most powerful factions in Umno – Zahid’s and Hishammuddin’s.

“Zahid is the presumptive deputy but he is not the official one unless he is elected. Without the motion, people in Hishammuddin’s camp could push him to contest against Zahid for the number two position,” said the source on condition of anonymity.

If that were to occur, it would disrupt the functioning of the party’s election machinery during GE14 as warlords sought to undermine each other, said the source.

When the two positions are locked, it cuts down the lobbying, said the source.

Zaiton Ismail of the Muar division said it would unite the party as a team behind Najib and Zahid as Umno faces its toughest general election.

“We will have greater teamwork and solidarity to face the opposition,” Zaiton said.

Genuine fears of GE14

Hisommuddin said the fact that Umno had to push through such a motion showed how worried the party’s grassroots leaders were with next year’s party elections.

On one front, Umno and BN faced an electorate that was seething at the government over inflation, stagnant wages, high youth unemployment and allegations of corruption, he said.

“It needs every advantage it can get, and a machinery distracted by party posts is something it cannot afford,” said Hisommuddin.

“If Umno performs worse this time, there will be pressure for the president’s post to be contested,” said Hisommuddin.

“This is something that division leaders probably do not want. They do not want to deal with more chaos in the Umno family if there is chaos in GE14.” – December 9, 2017.