ONE year after breaking into the political scene, Bersatu is making an impact as it garners more public support, but analysts warn that an over-dependence on Dr Mahathir Mohamad could prove to be its undoing. 

They doubt the party, which celebrates its first anniversary in Muar, Johor, today, will survive should anything happen to Dr Mahathir, its 92-year-old chairman.

“Clearly, Bersatu is riding on the Dr Mahathir factor. He is the pillar of Bersatu. If there is no Dr Mahathir, we don’t know what will happen to Bersatu,” said Hisommudin Bakar, director of the Ilham Centre.

“That is why we continue to see all these attacks against Dr Mahathir. This is to curb his influence and reduce public support for Bersatu.”

Dr Mahathir has been leading the charge against Barisan Nasional by holding ceramah in urban and rural areas, sometimes twice a week.

But as he reached out to the grassroots, several issues about his 22 years as prime minister were raised.

The latest being the 1985 Memali police siege and the billions of ringgit lost by Bank Negara Malaysia in foreign exchange trading 25 years ago.

Hisommudin said the leadership and charisma of Bersatu’s two other leaders – president Muhyiddin Yassin and deputy president Mukhriz Mahathir – were wanting, although both men wield influence in Johor and Kedah respectively.  

The Dr Mahathir factor was not something that could be “disregarded” and BN, he said, was “fully aware” of the influence the former prime minister wielded in the coming election. 

He compared how Dr Mahathir mobilised the campaign to bring down his successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi with the current scenario.

“When he was up against Pak Lah (Abdullah), Dr Mahathir only wrote in his blog. He received support as a blogger. There was no political party. 

“But now, he has the machinery of a political party, and (social) media has grown. He’s leading the opposition. I’m sure this really agitates Umno,” said Hisomudin. 

Bersatu is eyeing 54 constituencies in Felda settlements, which are Malay-majority rural seats. Umno has 88 parliamentary seats, minus Pagoh, Muhyiddin’s seat. 

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Azman Awang Pawi said Dr Mahathir’s presence in the opposition would raise many questions among the public, as the former prime minister had helmed Umno for decades.

“People are asking why did Dr Mahathir leave Umno? There must have been a big reason. People also look at his age. They wonder what is Dr Mahathir fighting for? For his country, or personal gain?” he said. 

Youths are also enamoured by Dr Mahathir participating in street demonstrations and the weekly ceramah he attends nationwide. 

“It raises a feeling that if Dr Mahathir could still do it at his age, why not them?” he said. 

Awang Azman said based on his surveys around the country, he found Bersatu’s recruitment drive to be lacking, but added that does not mean the party is small.

“We know that most Bersatu members were from Umno. But there are Umno members who are sympathetic to Bersatu, but have yet to register as members, for all sorts of personal reasons,” he said. 

He noted that Bersatu is also drawing Muslim professionals who are no longer PAS members. 

“Bersatu has strong leadership but at the grassroots level, at the district voting level, it is not as strong as Umno and PAS,” he said, comparing Bersatu today to how PKR (then Parti Keadilan Nasional) was in the 1999, when it lacked electoral machinery.

Keadilan was formed on September 4, 1999, a year after former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim was sacked by Dr Mahathir. The Reformasi movement was in full swing three months before the 1999 election. 

In the 10th general election, Keadilan contested 47 parliamentary seats and 72 state seats. The party only won five parliamentary seats and four state seats.  

“Dr Mahathir is the lifeline of Bersatu. Should anything happen to Dr Mahathir, it will have an impact on the party and Pakatan Harapan in general,” he said.

Meanwhile, James Chin, director of the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania said all the influence Dr Mahathir wielded would be useless if he did not stand in the next general election.

“If he does not stand as a candidate, how can he call the shots as a general?” he said. 

Dr Mahathir has been reluctant to confirm whether he would be contesting in the next election. 

Langkawi could be a likely target as the Dr Mahathir has much support for having developed the resort island. – September 9, 2017.