Will there be regime change in Turkey?


TURKEY’S balancing act by not taking sides in the Ukraine war is an excellent example of how a country should behave in a multipolar world.

Last September, Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan said a settlement in the conflict would require Russia to return all “invaded” land to Ukraine.

“If a peace is going to be established in Ukraine, of course, the returning of the land that was invaded will become really important. This is what is expected. This is what is wanted,” he said.

Erdogan also said “no invasion can be justified,” but acknowledged that at the same time, “prior to the breaking out of this conflict, many things had happened, a solution therefore won’t be found in person to the one side entirely and defending the other”.

At the start of the war, Turkey was the first to contribute arms and equipment to Ukraine, in line with its responsibility as a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member country, and also of the good bilateral relation it has had with Ukraine since before the war.

Also, it quickly closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to military vessels within days of the start of the war, not so much to prevent Moscow from reinforcing its fleet but rather to prevent escalation in the Black Sea.

It refuses until today to participate in the sanctions against Russia because of its belief that the only legitimate sanctions Turkey will observe are those that are mandated by the UN Security Council, and not the US-mandated or EU-mandated ones.

In doing all these, we can see that Erdogan is just doing what a leader should do – taking care of Turkey’s interest so that the well-being of each and every Turkish citizen is guaranteed.

And he doesn’t do all these at the expense of other countries. He even has humanity in mind when he initiated the Black Sea Grain Initiative with the United Nations and playing a mediator role to end the Ukraine war.

While the US has been plotting his downfall based on a video which resurfaced recently where President Joe Biden has detailed what looks like a “handbook” for a regime change in Turkey via the electoral process, Ankara was chosen as the venue for the heads of the American and Russian foreign intelligence services to discuss “threats against international security, starting with the use of nuclear weapons”, Erdogan’s office has said then.

But instead of recognising the useful, neutral role that Turkey has played all this while, the US and its western allies are hell-bent to see Erdogan go.

A few weeks before the May 14 election, the mainstream US and western media ran anti-Erdogan articles.

For weeks before the election, opinion polls of the West that were manipulated to show opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu winning the election were trumpeted throughout Turkey and the world.

Views of US and western analysts that predicted the two powerful earthquakes which struck southern Turkey in February, killing more than 50,000 people, would hurt Erdogan’s chances of re-election gained prominence as the election date neared.

But in the aftermath of the election, figures showed that out of 11 provinces affected by the earthquakes, Erdogan and his AK Party were ahead in eight provinces in both the presidential and parliamentary elections, while Kilicdaroglu of the Nation Alliance and the leftist main opposition Republican People’s Party leader were well ahead only in two earthquake provinces.

Without this meddling by the US and western media, Erdogan would have easily won the election without the necessity of a runoff on May 28. It is indeed very strange that the US and its allies are hell-bent in plotting the downfall of even its own ally.

Now most analysts, including the US and western ones, are predicting an easy victory for Erdogan in the runoff on May 28.

But can we really believe and underestimate the neo-cons in the Biden administration and their allies in Europe to just surrender without trying their best to unseat Erdogan?

Only time will tell. – May 27, 2023.

* Jamari Mohtar reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.


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