THE battle for Perak lies in the slim margins of nine seats Barisan Nasional’s lynchpin party, Umno, won by 1,000 votes or fewer in the last elections.

The nine seats are Lubok Merbau (53 votes), Manjoi (132), Manong (231), Pasir Panjang (304), Selama (610), Rungkup (613), Kamunting (887), Bukit Chandan (959) and Kubu Gajah (1,085).

In 2013, BN retained Perak with a slim majority of 31 seats in the 59-seat state assembly in 2013, even though the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat won 55% of the popular vote.

And while political analysts are pessimistic that Pakatan Harapan can pull off a similar surprise like 2008, state leaders are optimistic about another close fight.

Similarly, Pakatan has its own share of marginal seats in Kuala Sepetang (PKR) and Changkat Jering (Amanah).

In 2013, PKR won Kuala Sepetang by 758 votes, beating Gerakan, while former Perak menteri besar Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin took Changkat Jering from Umno by 1,170 votes.

“In marginal seats, every vote counts. That’s why Umno is working with PAS to defeat us,” Perak PH chief Ahmad Faizal Azumu told The Malaysian Insight.

“We’re aiming for a comfortable majority but the reality is whoever wins, I think it’s going to be a slim majority,” he said.

PAS, a party that analysts said will act as a spoiler for PH, also risks losing the four state seats that it currently holds.

The Islamist party won three out of the four state seats by fewer than 2,000 votes in GE13.

The three are Selinsing (809 votes), Gunung Semanggol (1,405) and Titi Serong (1,794). It won Sungai Rapat by a slightly higher margin of 2,638 votes.

Threats to PH

Selangor think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan chief executive officer Prof Dr Mohd Redzuan Othman said two factors could undermine PH.

“If the Election Commission proceeds with the redelineation, that will be an advantage to BN. 

“Secondly, (current Perak Menteri Besar) Zambry Abdul Kadir is popular with the Malay voters. He is one of the reasons BN won Perak in 2013.

“I was told he would go to every district, assemble the officers, and solve their problems on the spot. He sleeps at the mosques at night and breakfasts with the people,” said the political scientist.

Ilham Centre director Hisommudin Bakar agreed that Zambry is seen as a down-to-earth figure by the public and PH should not take PAS lightly.

“PAS cannot be underestimated, especially in northern Perak. They may not have the numbers to win but they can split the vote for the opposition,” he added.

In comparison, Perak PH, particularly Bersatu, has been plagued by internal squabbles and bad press.

Ahmad Faizal, who is also Perak Bersatu head, has had to deal with protests and resignations from party members unhappy with his appointment as the state chief.

Fighting for Malay votes

Undaunted, Ahmad Faizal said Pakatan is confident of retaining the urban, mixed seats in Perak with comfortable majorities, and wresting the Malay-majority and rural seats from BN and PAS.

“Whoever wants to form the state government has to focus on the Malay belt areas along the Perak river: from Gerik, Lenggong, Padang Rengas, Kuala Kangsar down to Pasir Salak and Teluk Intan.

“That is where the battleground is. We’ll do our thing, talk to our target groups. Personally, I like to go house-to-house, coffee shops, have face-to-face interactions.”

Bersatu is targeting grassroots Umno supporters who are disgruntled with Prime Minister and Umno president Najib Razak because of the rising cost of living and 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal but dare not openly display their unhappiness.

“Their eyes are open. They won’t be our volunteers but they will know who to vote for, like the harum manis in PAS.

“We won’t target BN and PAS hardcore supporters as they are part of the party machinery. I have aunties and uncles who are die-hard BN supporters. I just tell them I wish you all the best,” said the former Umno member.

Ahmad Faizal also dismissed Zambry’s popularity as an overriding factor.

“He is a good friend of mine. He is very good in public relations but there are a lot of issues within his circle, within his own office and within Umno.” – March 12, 2018.