SINCE its formation, PAS would have been confident of the support of its rank and file in any election.

But this fixed deposit vote bank might not a sure thing this time around, said analysts, with confusion over the party’s close ties with Umno and impact of splinter party Amanah weighing heavy in the ranks.

Party members whose loyalty is being tested might choose not vote the Islamist party at the 14^th general election or just sit out the elections, said political observers.

They said the sentiments and number of this group of voters, dubbed the “silent voters”, are difficult to pin down as many were no longer the ardent party supporters of past elections but were keeping mum on who will get their vote at GE14.

The possibility of this happening is real as in 2008, Barisan Nasional took a beating when many of its supporters did not vote or simply voted for the opposition parties.

It eventually led to BN losing its super majority and the governments of Selangor, Penang, Perak and Kedah.

The formation of PAS’ splinter party Amanah in 2015 was the catalyst for the formation of this silent group, as the split left many loyalists confused as to the direction of the Islamist party, said political researcher from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Dr Mazlan Ali.

“These groups didn’t leave PAS, but a large number of them will no longer vote for this party in GE14,” he said.

According to the results of four studies he has conducted since 2015, as many as 35% PAS voters joined Amanah after the split.

Out of the remaining 65%, 10% were Amanah supporters but remained in PAS as “harumanis” members, referring to a local mango species which is green on the outside (PAS’ party colours) but orange on the inside (Amanah’s colours).

Another 20% are those unclear on the party’s direction, said Mazlan.

“I think that more than half of this confused group will not vote for PAS in the general election, or else will not go out to vote as a sign of protest.”

His research shows that PAS is likely to only win two state seats if there is a three-cornered fight among PAS, Pakatan Harapan and BN.

When The Malaysian Insight went to the ground in Terengganu, the state that was once a PAS stronghold, these “silent voters” confirmed their dilemma.

“We feel that PAS needs to work with Pakatan Harapan to enable us to fight squarely against BN and enable us to win,” said Abdullah Samad, a former civil servant.

“In a three-cornered fight, how are we going to win, because PAS and PH are courting the same group of voters, so BN will win.”

Abdullah said he was “confused” as to whether he should support PAS even though he believed the party would surely lose the elections or vote PH.

Another PAS member, Mohamad Azmi Salleh, said he believes that PAS should work with PH to bring down the BN government for the sake of the people.

“We are in great difficulty now because the prices of goods that keep going up because of GST. If PAS is on its own, how are we going to win?” Azmi told The Malaysian Insight.

Saodah Mohamad, a PAS volunteer for the 14th general election, said an entire kampung “turned” to Amanah after the party was formed.

“At a neighbouring kampung, the entire kampung rushed to join (Amanah) quietly, even though the village head used to be a PAS division chief,” he said.

However, if one were to check the membership list, they remain as PAS members, said Saodah.

PH on the offensive

Eager to capitalise on the swaying loyalties of PAS members, PH is planning to launch its election offensive into Terengganu after the final round of seat allocations is completed on January 31.

“We will wait until the division of seats is completed, and then we will go full force on the ground,” said Bersatu Terengganu secretary Hambali Abdul Latif.

The process of seat division is ongoing among PH leaders.

The initial division of parliamentary seats saw Bersatu allocated the highest number of seats in the peninsula at 52 seats, PKR (51), DAP (35) and Amanah (27).

In Terengganu, Bersatu will stand in three parliamentary seats – Hulu Terengganu, Setiu and Besut. Amanah will stand in Kuala Terengganu, Marang and Kuala Nerus, while Kemaman and Dungun will be represented by PKR. – January 29, 2018.