UMNO will still be the loser even if Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin gives in to its demand for a more prominent role in the Perikatan Nasional government, said analysts.

Even if the party gets its way now, it will face problems when it comes to the division of parliamentary seats in the next general election, they said.

The main issue between the two parties is trust deficit, they said.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) political science lecturer Dr Mazlan Ali said Umno will not benefit much even if Muhyiddin gives them important posts as he sets the direction of the government.

“Even if Umno gets a position in the cabinet, it will not change anything because the prime minister is Muhyiddin and it is in his hands that determines the direction of PN.

“Umno is unhappy because most of the important positions are held by Bersatu. But if Umno gets these positions, Bersatu will also be unhappy,” Mazlan told The Malaysian Insight.

Umno’s request for terms and conditions is just a ploy to get Muhyiddin to dissolve Parliament, said Mazlan.

This is because Bersatu is seen as a threat to Umno, he said.

“If it serves the will of Umno, it has the potential to make more demands in the future.

“Muhyiddin’s government remains unstable because Umno, which once was in power in Sabah for 27 years, lost to Bersatu.

“I do not think Umno is making a claim, it is more for pressure on Muhyiddin.”

In the Sabah elections last month, Umno only contested two of the eight original seats it won in the 14th general election. Umno defectors to Bersatu contested in the original six seats.

The Sabah chief minister’s post is now held by Bersatu’s Hajiji Mohd Noor although Umno has more seats.

After GE14, 15 Umno MPs left the party to join Bersatu, which involved 10 seats in the peninsula and five in Sabah.

Rumours of a cabinet reshuffle surfaced yesterday as Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is due to meet Muhyiddin soon.

The Umno political bureau, which met on Tuesday, said the party is considering withdrawing support for PN and leaving the government, unless it agrees to the new terms.

The new conditions of political cooperation for Umno support must be finalised immediately in writing, said Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan.

Ahmad also said the meeting agreed to propose that Muafakat Nasional be registered immediately.

Universiti Malaya Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi also thinks that Umno will continue to lose and have to give in to Bersatu in terms of the distribution of seats at GE15.

“There is no reason for Umno to accept unless Umno feels the position is more important than future politics.

“Umno will have to share seats with Bersatu in the next elections and it will lose in the long term.

“As long as there is Bersatu, Umno will not get many seats to be dominant and get a large majority,” he saidd.

Awang Azman expects Muhyiddin to satisfy Umno’s demands because he is under pressure.

“Muhyiddin is now in a tight spot. In terms of position, there is already a motion of no-confidence vote, and Anwar Ibrahim (PKR president) has also approached the Yang di-Pertuan Agong claiming that Muhyiddin has lost support.

“The post of deputy prime minister will be offered and other positions to attract support so that his government does not fall.”

Nidhal Mujahid, a political analyst from the Penang Institute, said Umno will lose in the long run if it accepts Bersatu’s offer because Umno’s position remains under Bersatu.

Clearly, the issue of trust will start to arise between the two parties because Bersatu will be more careful about being manipulated by Umno while the latter has its own ego because it has more parliamentary seats.

“Umno is still in a state of loss, especially at the grassroots level. Even now, it is still at loggerheads with Bersatu.

“If PN still exists and Umno is still in it, it will always be overshadowed by Bersatu.”

He said that a better step was for Umno to withdraw from PN.

“I think Umno’s position is more stable with Muafakat Nasional (with PAS) or with Barisan Nasional.

The Umno and Bersatu tension could create a three-cornered contest at the next elections, said Mazlan.

“Bersatu will probably demand between 45-55 parliamentary seats and that is difficult for Umno to accept.”

PAS and Umno would face seat problems in the Malay-majority states, since PAS won Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.

“If multi-cornered fights occur between PH, BN and PN, it will give PH an advantage,” he added. – October 19, 2020.